Applied Physics Laboratory APL MURI Kickoff 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

Applied Physics Laboratory APL MURI TEAM Bob Miyamoto David Jones Jim Pitton Keith Kerr Mark Krueger 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

Key Strengths of the Team Navy/domain experience Related research projects MHSII EVIS DRI Visualization, Intelligent Agents, Engineering Statistics 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

Applied Physics Laboratory APL Role in MURI Team Provide relevance to Navy needs Coordinate interaction w/ Navy Orgs. Develop task-based visualizations Integrate component research efforts Facilitate interaction among MURI participants 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

Navy METOC & Uncertainty “Model of the Day?” Tropical Cyclone forecasts EFS at FNMOC Ship Routing Long Range Temp Forecast 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

Navy METOC & Uncertainty Based on my experience as the Operations Officer at FNMOC Forecasters have limited understanding Confusing products Not designed for forecaster Great potential still not fully realized 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

Examples of Navy Uncertainty Products 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

FNMOC Ensemble Temp Mean 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

Applied Physics Laboratory FNMOC 2m Temp Plume 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

FNMOC Gale Probability 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

Applied Physics Laboratory Areas to investigate How forecasters deal with uncertainty Uses of uncertainty information by METOC customers Easier ways to create uncertainty products Better visualization techniques Verification 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

Applied Physics Laboratory FNMOC COAMPS 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

Applied Physics Laboratory UW Ensemble Mean 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

Applied Physics Laboratory Next Steps Cognitive Task Analysis at Whidbey Island Norfolk Collaborative work with NPMOC, NLMOC, NPMOF, & FNMOC Visualization research >>> 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

Exploratory Software Prototype Requirements Design Prototype Development Iterative Refinement Implementation Analysis 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

Tentative Requirements User-based framework Analytic & Geospatial visualization tools Collaborative, interactive exploration Cross-platform availability Easy extensibility Suitable for broad range of expertise 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

Implementation Tools (1) Java Language Cross-platform Sophisticated network (web) model Can “wrap” models in other languages Inference Engine Easy to tailor level of expertise Can both bound and sequence operations 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

Implementation Tools (2) VisAD for Visualization Model-View-Controller architecture Remote display and collaboration Sophisticated data model High-level scripting language (Jython) Supports specialized “toolkit” development Currently used within meteorological community 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

VisAD Creations (courtesy VMET) Terrain and Wind Vectors 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

VisAD Creations (Courtesy VMET) Time Series Wind Fields 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory

VisAD Creations (courtesy VMET) MM5 output – wind and temp fields 1/3/2019 Applied Physics Laboratory