Recent Trends in Virginia’s Economy

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Presentation transcript:

Recent Trends in Virginia’s Economy September 14, 2016

Total Nonfarm Employment Trends begin to diverge in late 2011 Really diverge in 2013 VA accelerates in 2014 Breaks through in 2015 as US begins to decclerate. Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Total Nonfarm Employment This is what it looked like in November 2015 when the Gov’s revenue forecast was generated Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Total Nonfarm Employment Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Private Average Hourly Wages VA’s wage growth exceeded the US for most of 2010 and 2011. Fell back to the national trend in 2012. Lagged behind in 2013 and 2014. Accelerated past US in 2015 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Private Average Hourly Wages Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Private Average Hourly Wages So, what caused this decceleration? Let’s do a drill down. What’s the largest employment sector in VA? Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

VA Employment 2015 Top 6 comprise 77% of employment Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Government Employment Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Government Employment 2013:M7 to 2016:M7 Between July 2013 and July 2016, total government declined by 1,000 jobs in VA. But: Federal increased 2,000 jobs State increased by 3,000 jobs Local declined by 6,000 jobs Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Government Employment 2015:M7 to 2016:M7 Between July 2015 and July 2016, total government declined by 2,000 jobs in VA. But: Federal increased 2,000 jobs State was level Local declined by 4,000 jobs Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Professional and Business Services Employment Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Prof. and Bus. Serv. Employment 2013:M7 to 2016:M7 Between July 2013 and July 2016, Professional and Business Services increased by 45,000 jobs in VA. But: Professional and Technical Services increased 15,000 jobs Management of Companies and Enterprises was flat Administrative and Waste Services increased by 30,000 jobs Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Prof. and Bus. Serv. Employment 2015:M7 to 2016:M7 Between July 2015 and July 2016, Professional and Business Services increased by 24,000 jobs in VA. But: Professional and Technical Services increased 11,000 jobs Management of Companies and Enterprises was flat Administrative and Waste Services increased by 13,000 jobs Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Education and Healthcare Employment Between July of 2013 and July 2016 up 37,000 jobs Between July of 2015 and July 2016 up 15,000 jobs Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Retail Trade Employment Between July of 2013 and July 2016 up 21,000 jobs Between July of 2015 and July 2016 up 13,000 jobs Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Leisure and Hospitality Employment Between July of 2013 and July 2016 up 25,000 jobs Between July of 2015 and July 2016 up 4,000 jobs Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Manufacturing Employment Between July of 2013 and July 2016 down 1,000 jobs Between July of 2015 and July 2016 down 4,000 jobs Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate In July 2016 unemployment was 5.1% in US and 4.0% in VA Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Labor Force Participation: 16 plus In July 2016 labor force participation was 63.4% in US and 64.0% in VA Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Labor Force Participation: 16 plus A little deceptive – pig in the python Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

US Labor Force Participation: 18 to 24 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

US Labor Force Participation: 24 to 54 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

US Labor Force Participation: 55 to 64 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

US Labor Force Participation: 65 plus Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

In sum Virginia out-performed the national norm during the recession. We have under-performed the national norm during the recovery and were particularly affected by the 2013 federal sequester. Throughout 2015 and into the first quarter of 2016, our employment growth was accelerating, while the national trend was decelerating. Starting in the second quarter of 2016, we collapsed back to the national norm

In sum Statewide employment in Government (mostly driven by Local), Leisure and Hospitality, and manufacturing are now lagging the national norm. Statewide employment in Retail Trade is leading the national norm. Statewide employment in Professional and Business Services and Education and Healthcare were leading the national norm, but have recently collapsed to the national trend.

In sum Statewide unemployment remains a parentage point below the national average. Where nationally, labor force participation levels have stabilized and now appear to be rising, in Virginia the continue to fall. This continued decline in labor force participation is responsible for much of our apparent decline in the unemployment rate.

Thank You Dr. A. Fletcher Mangum President 804-346-8446 fletcher@mangumeconomics.com