Marilyn Wolfson (MIT/LL),

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Chapter 13 – Weather Analysis and Forecasting

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Presentation transcript:

Marilyn Wolfson (MIT/LL), NCWF Plans Cindy Mueller (NCAR) Steve Weygandt (FSL) Marilyn Wolfson (MIT/LL), Barb Brown (NCAR), and Jesse Sparks (AWC) Goal: 0-6hr Probablistic Forecasts that combine automation, NWP, and forecaster input Photo courtesy of Gregg Thompson

NCWF Demonstrations Probability Forecasts (strategic planning) 1 & 2-h observation based Radar mosaics, lightning, & RUC ExADDs NCAR Extended NCWF (E-NCWF) 2, 4 & 6-h RUC based WWW page (next summer) FSL/NOAA Future Fused observations, NWP and forecaster, 0-6 hr forecast Test in summer 05 NCWF-2 19z + 2h E-NCWF

NCWF-2 Operational NCWF NCWF-2 1 hr Extrapolation (cyan) Binary yes/no 1-2 hr probability forecasts Capture regions of growth Trend dissipation

RTVS Verification – 1hr

Large-scale Trending of Dissipation Black contours NCWD verification observation 1-hr without Trending 1-hr with Trending 2-hr without Trending 2-hr with Trending CSI 1-hr Forecast Black – Without trending Magenta – With trending

E-NCWF, NCWF-2, and Forecaster Input July 14, 2004 Valid - 11Z 10z + 1h 09z + 2h CIWS VIL 11 Z E-NCWF, NCWF-2, and Forecaster Input July 14, 2004 Valid - 11Z Forecaster: - Strong upper-tropospheric divergence over the western NY/PA, weak low-level jet and warm-air advection provides additional forcing, thus elevated convection likely to persist throughout the early morning hours.

ANC Forecast loop

Finally One Last Slide… PROBABILITIES Forecaster/developer perspective Quantify uncertainty Provide a methodology (or common unit) to combine observational-based forecasts with NWP. Requires additional research to better quantify predictability of convective events and associated environmental processes. User perspective Calibrate decisions based on probability and risk Maps of probabilities of convection alone not entirely useful (information about echo tops or convective organization very helpful) Verification Problems that arise in current verification techniques due to off-set errors and difference in scales between forecast and observations are not alleviated by probability forecasts.

Thank You!