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DANGEROUS VOLCANOES IN THE WORLD A RE-ERUPTION OF 11 OF THE 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES IS LIKELY TO BE VERY DEVASTATING, LOCALLY, REGIONALLY, AND GLOBALLY.

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MAJOR ERUPTION OF MEXICO’S POPOCATEPETL COULD BE EMINENT Friday, April 20, 2012 More lectures at Disasters Supercourse -http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/collections/collection52.htm Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES

ACTIVE VOLCANOES

MEXICO’S POPOCATEPETL: APRIL 17, 2012

MEXICO’S POPOCATEPETL: APRIL 20

An estimated 5 million people in the states of Mexico, Puebla, and Morelos would be affected by a major eruption of the 17,778 ft Popocatepetl

POPOCATEPL: STATES OF MEXICO, PUEBLA, AND MORELOS AT RISK

CAUSES OF RISK LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC FLOWS FLYING DEBRIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANIC ASH LAVA FLOWS CASE HISTORIES LAHARS TOXIC GASES

Mexican President Felipe Calderon said that comprehensive emergency contingency plans are ready to be implemented the minute evacuations are ordered.

AT PRESENT, THE WARNING IS AT STAGE 5 OF A 7-STATE WARNING SYSTEM

TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO EVACUATE FOR VOLCANOES A PRIMER

NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH EVACUATION IS TYPICAL FLOODS GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY HURRICANES HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW BEMEFIT/COST FOR PROTECTING PROPERTY TYPHOONS TSUNAMIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WILDFIRES

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) VERTICAL PLUME ASH AND TEPHRA LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC CLOUDS, BURSTS, AND FLOWS

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) LAVA FLOWS LAHARS EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava) “VOLCANIC WINTER”

YOU CAN’T OUTRUN OR OUT MANEUVER: ASH AND TEPHRA, LATERAL BLASTS, PYROCLASTIC CLOUDS, BURSTS, AND FLOWS, LAHARS, LAVA FLOWS

MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES AND WARNING SYSTEMS ARE A VITAL PART OF THE DECISION TO EVACUATE, OR NOT.

MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES .

KNOWING THE ERUPTION HISTORY OF A VOLCANO IS A VITAL PART OF THE ART AND SCIENCE OF INTELLIGENT EVACUATION.

SUCCESSFUL EVACUATION BEFORE A FULL SCALE ERUPTION OF POPOCATEPETL COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIFE AND DEATH FOR MILLIONS.

WHEN YOU CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE, OR YOU ARE UNABLE TO EVACUATE, THE ODDS FOR SURVIVAL ARE LOWER THAN WHEN YOU EVACUATE