The National Impact of 1.5 and 2 degree over Africa, the Role of Climate Change and Aridity Presented by: Modathir Zaroug.

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Presentation transcript:

The National Impact of 1.5 and 2 degree over Africa, the Role of Climate Change and Aridity Presented by: Modathir Zaroug.

Introduction In Paris Agreement, the 21st Conference of Parties (COP 21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held in Paris in December 2015 invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. This research is intended to contribute to the above special report.

Data and Methods Analysed data from the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario runs from the CMIP5 global climate model (GCM), but we focused on RCP8.5. Identify the dates at which each GCM simulation 30-year global mean temp permanently exceeds 1.5 and 2.0 C relative to preindustrial period (1861-1900) . Map out the spatial changes in 30-year annual mean climate at 1.5 and 2.0 C global warming, relative to preindustrial, as well as the changes between 1.5 and 2.0 C warming. Test for significant differences in the changes, using both the IPCC AR5 two standard deviation approach, as well as the z- score for differences between means.

Data and Methods Cont’ Calculate the temperature & rainfall change for all African countries by all the members at 1.5 and 2 degree. Calculate the relation between the temperature & rainfall change vs the aridity index at 1.5 and 2 degree by all RCP8.5. Calculate the relation between the temperature & rainfall change vs the Maritime at 1.5 and 2 degree by using all the members of RCP8.5. The analysis is undertaken on a model-by-model basis, after which ensemble mean changes and significance were determined. Results presented here are for the entire CMIP5 models, for the RCP8.5 scenario only, and for mean annual 30-year temperature and precipitation.

Temperature

Rainfall

Rainfall

Impact of Aridity Index

Impact of Maritime

Conclusion Median temperature across all African countries are significantly different, and warmer, when compared with 2.0 and 1.5 C global warming projections. East Africa in general showed the lowest increase in temperature. Rainfall is expected to increase in East Africa. The aridity index is the main driver for temperature increase.

Thank you