A short introduction into downscaling Hans von Storch Institute for Coastal Research GKSS Research Center Germany Uppsala, 30 September 2005 Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall Overview The perspective of anthropogenic climate change: - needs for studying the sensitivity of the global system, and - the needs for adaptation on the regional and local scale. Tools to do so: Global quasi-realistic climate models. Limitation in spatial resolution. Need for Downscaling: empirical and dynamical. Uppsala, 30 September 2005 Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall The expectation of anthropogenic climate change – little doubt left. Different scenarios describing plausible, possible and different futures. Uppsala, 30 September 2005 Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall Uppsala, 30 September 2005 Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
TAR-“Consensus” on precip change in 2100 Uppsala, 30 September 2005 Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall Response: adaptation and mitigation Mitigation (reduction of emissions) as much a we can afford (economically, socially); long term effort; long term gains; international efforts Adaptation to present extreme events – short term effort, local effort; useful if future extreme events are getting worse. Uppsala, 30 September 2005 Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
Dynamical / empirical downscaling Uppsala, 30 September 2005 Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall 2 Examples Dynamical Downscaling Rockel&Woth Empirical Downscaling 2CO2 Maak&von Storch control Projected change of flowering date of Galantis Nivalis in Northern Germany (days) Change in total number of storm peak events (in %) from 1961-1990 to 2071-2100 simulated by a RCM/A2 Uppsala, 30 September 2005 Disputation Frederik Wetterhall
Disputation Frederik Wetterhall And now … Frederik Wetterhall on Statistical downscaling of precipitation in Sverige och China Uppsala, 30 September 2005 Disputation Frederik Wetterhall