ERTAC EGU Overview For the 2016 EGU workgroup January 25, 2018 08-2017

Introduction to ERTAC EGU State and planning organization collaboration to build a model to project future EGU emissions suited to state air quality planning Starting Point for v2.7 2011 Base Year (BY) hourly continuous emissions monitor (CEM) data BY & FY unit activity matches meteorology More realistic for SIP modeling Growth rates (GRs) by fuel and region – EIA AEO2017 & NERC Coal, Oil, NG (CC, SC, Boiler Gas) Information Supplied By States as of Spr 2017 New units, retirements, seasonal & annual controls, fuel-switches, etc. ERTAC EGU Tool Generates Future Hourly Estimates Manual power transfer across regional boundaries or fuel silos – Large NY nuke retired. Power transferred to two NG Combined cycle units Regional unit capacity never exceeded - Unmet demand applied to other units or new units created if demand exceeds system capacity on an hourly basis Hourly Emissions Converted to SMOKE Format for AQ Modeling 08-2017

Unit Level Hypothetical Example Coal Fired Existing Unit, 800 MW 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Base Future CEM Hourly Base Year Data Mmbtu/hr Variations in growth rate Calendar Hours

Hypothetical Unit Level Example Coal Fired Existing Unit, 800 MW – SO2 Control Base Future Future Year lbs/hr Base Year lbs/hr Calendar Hours

Growth Rates (GR) Peak GR = 1.07 Annual GR = 0.95 Transition hours of 200 & 2,000 Non Peak GR = 0.9328 (calculated)

Benefits of ERTAC EGU Growth Tool Conservative predictions No big swings in generation No unexpected unit shutdowns Inputs completely transparent Software not proprietary Hourly output files reflect base year meteorology Addresses HEDD concerns Quickly evaluates scenarios High and low natural gas penetration Different ways that sources might comply with a new rule (MATS) Retirements, growth, and controls

Source: EIA AEO 2006 – EIA AEO 2017, Table 8

Source: EIA AEO 2006 – EIA AEO 2017, Table 8

ERTAC EGU v2.7 AEO2017 (Annual Growth) & NERC (Peak Growth) with two exceptions SRVC and NYCW use Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) derived growth factors State unit updates as of Spring 2017 Generation transfers to alternate fuels to address identified issues Transfer of Indian Point nuclear powerplant generation to combined cycle NG (for years after 2021) Transfer of power in a few hours from coal to NG in RFCE (missing generation) Transfer of power from coal to NG in FRCC/FL to alleviate coal GDU Unit characteristic updates in SRDA to alleviate coal GDU (one unit at Big Cajun 2/LA) Transfer of power from coal to NG in NEWE to alleviate coal GDU (2017 only) Emission rate adjustments on facilities with SCR & SNCR in CSAPR states for ozone season only Units with SNCR’s reduced to 0.125 lb/MMBtu (EPA did not reduce SNCR in their Analytics approach) Units with SCR’s reduced to 0.064 lb/MMBtu (EPA used 0.1 lb/MMBtu) Similar to MD study of “best rates” Emission rate adjustments on some facilities without post-combustion controls in OK 1/2/2019

0.125 lb/MMBtu 08-2017

0.064 lb/MMBtu 08-2017

AEO2017 no CPP w/controls - Analysis Need a 3:1 ratio for emissions above assurance level 08-2017

47% Overall Decrease in NOX ERTAC EGU V2.7 2023 and 2011 Emissions & Heat Input 47% Overall Decrease in NOX 61% Overall Decrease in SO2 Heat input approximately the same 08-2017

2011 and 2023 Optimized versus Non-Optimized ERTAC EGU V2.7 2011 and 2023 Optimized versus Non-Optimized Ozone Season NOX Emissions Note: Some states in Western USA did not provide updates to ERTAC EGU for new units and controls. Examples include AZ, WY. Their 2023 emissions might be lower than was estimated. Only CSAPR states were optimized. 08-2017

ERTAC EGU V2.7 2011, 2023 and 2016 CAMD Annual Emissions & Heat Input States where NOX for 23>>16 AR, AZ, KS, MS, NE, OK, TX, UT, WY DRAFT 08-2017

Next Steps ERTAC EGU committee is developing the 2016 base year with CSAPR compliant projections to 2028 & 2023. Base year is done. Projections are in progress 08-2017

How do you find the files? ERTAC EGU files are located here: http://www.marama.org/2013-ertac-egu-forecasting-tool-documentation Latest posted version is v2.7 Presentations & other materials from this outreach are located here: Username:apaty@marama.org Password:ERTACoutr3ach Sign In URL:https://marama.sharefile.com/ Questions? 08-2017

Extra Slides 08-2017

NOX emissions by state (Tons/ozone season) 09-11-2012 1

UAF and Controls Input Files: How to Provide Input Doris McLeod, Air Quality Planner Doris.McLeod@deq.virginia.gov 804-698-4197

The Five Basic Files Unit Availability File (UAF) Controls File Backbone of the tool Unit level data Sources: CAMD, EIA, NEEDS, State Staff Controls File Unit level data for SO2 and NOx Emission rates or control efficiencies May be supplemented with the Seasonal Controls File Growth Rates File Growth rates by region and fuel unit type Annual based on EIA reference case (AEO 2015 High Oil & Gas) Peak based on NERC Input Variables File A variety of variables that can be changed for each region and fuel unit type Many deal with new, planned units or GDUs CAMD Hourly Base Year Data These are the 5 files needed to run the code. Other extra files are for state and group emissions caps, nonCAMD input file, and seasonal controls file. Users may use the seasonal controls file to vary the emissions rate of a particular unit by time period in the future year. Examples currently include rates assigned by season, but could go down to an increment of a day, if the user had that much patience. State and group emissions caps allow the code to create output files that compare FY emissions with appropriate caps. These files do NOT change the result of activity estimates or emissions estimates. At this point in time, the state and group emissions caps only allow the comparison to take place. The nonCAMD input file allows the user to include hourly emissions data that is NOT from CAMD. However, the data must be in the CAMD hourly format. Can be used to supply hours for an entire year, or just a few hours of the year.

Controls File Control data only affects emissions--does NOT affect activity Allows close management of emission rates at the unit level If the BY is an accurate reflection of EFs in the FY, no control files information is needed. If the unit will be operated differently in the FY, apply that data to the controls file. Please include NOx and SO2 rates for new units or for units that undergo a fuel switch. Please include the “Submitter’s Email Address” in that column! Please provide a “reason” for the control. This could be: Permit limit taken State RACT rule Consent Decree #..... Etc. Control does not affect activity. Only emissions and emission rates.

Controls File: Typical Entries for Documentation File-SO2 & NOx Blue columns are needed for processing May submit either emission rate or control efficiency If both are submitted, emission rate is used For new or fuel-switched units, emission rate is needed (no BY data to which the control efficiency may be applied!) Other columns are helpful, but the code will process the data with blanks in these columns If at all possible, supply control data entries for new units! Also, please fill in the commenter’s email column so we know who to contact for questions!

Submitter’s email address column not shown!!! Please fill that in too!   SO2 oris plant id camd unit id state facility name camd unit type NEEDS ID SO2 Control Equipment SO2 Control Start Date SO2 Control End Date SO2 Control Efficiency Controlled SO2 Rate (lbs/mmBtu) 2011 CAMD SO2 RATE (lbs/mmbtu) 2012 CAMD SO2 RATE (lbs/mmbtu) Comments 3775 1 VA Clinch River Use of NG 4/17/2016 1/1/2050 0.001 0.863 0.894 Unit switched to gas as required by permit. EF based on permit limit of 0.001 lbs/mmbtu. See https://www.deq.virginia.gov/Portals/0/DEQ/Air/Permitting/TitleVPermits/ 3797 3 Chesterfield Power Station FGD 1/1/2012 95.0 0.1014 1.700 0.067 Voluntary control. EF based on 2014 CAMD data. 5 0.0589 Control required by federal CO. Limitation of 0.10 lbs SO2/mmbtu. EF based on 2014 CAMD data. Http://www2.epa.gov/sites/production/files/documents/vepcocd.pdf 56808 Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center  Dry scrubber  0.010 New unit. Rate based on 2013 CAMD data. Limit is 0.022 lbs/mmbtu SO2. Title V permit dated Jan 1, 2014: http://www.deq.virginia.gov/Portals/0/DEQ/Air/Permitting/TitleVPermits/11526_permit.pdf Submitter’s email address column not shown!!! Please fill that in too!

Submitter’s email address column not shown!!! Please fill that in too!   NOx oris plant id camd unit id state facility name camd unit type NEEDS ID NOx Control Equipment NOx Control Start Date NOx Control End Date NOx Control Efficiency Controlled NOx Rate (lbs/mmBtu) 2011 CAMD NOx RATE (lbs/mmbtu) 2012 CAMD NOx RATE (lbs/mmbtu) Comments 3775 1 VA Clinch River Use of NG 4/17/2016 1/1/2050 0.13 0.22 0.19 Unit switched to gas as required by permit. Permit limit of 0.18 lbs NOx/mmbtu. Rate based on similar unit’s CAMD data. See permit dated 8/3/2016. 56808 Virginia City Hybrid Energy Center  SNCR 1/1/2012  0.061 New unit. Rate based on 2013 CAMD data. Limit is 0.070 lbs/mmbtu NOx. Title V permit dated Jan 1, 2014: http://www.deq.virginia.gov/Portals/0/DEQ/Air/Permitting/TitleVPermits/11526_permit.pdf Submitter’s email address column not shown!!! Please fill that in too!

Eastern Regional Technical Advisory Committee (ERTAC) ERTAC convenes ad-hoc groups to solve specific inventory problems Collaboration: States - NE, Mid-Atlantic, Southern, and Lake Michigan Multi-jurisdictional organizations Industry ERTAC EGU growth convened in 2009 Goal: Build a model to project future EGU emissions suited to State air quality planning Utility representatives provided guidance on model design and inputs