Development and Climate Change World Development Report 2010 Marianne Fay October 2009

Act now Act together Act differently Climate change is a serious and immediate threat but a climate-smart world is possible if we… Act now Act together Act differently New finance, instruments and pressures are helping build momentum New finance, new instruments and new pressures are helping build momentum

Scientific consensus: serious and immediate 2001 assessment 2007 assessment Increase in global temperature since pre-industrial era (°C) 5 4 2 1 3 2°C over preindustrial Today = + 0.8°C Risks to unique and threatened systems Risk of extreme weather events Distribution of impacts Aggregate impacts Risks of large scale discontinuities Source: Smith and others, 2009

No country is immune – ECA significantly threatened By 2030, ECA will be much warmer… +1.6 to+2.6 by mid century Fewer frost days (- 14 to 30 days) More heatwaves: Poland and Hungary to experience same number hot days as Sicily today Implications Melting glaciers; less snow Melting permafrost, arctic ice Sealevel rise (except Caspian)

No country is immune – ECA significantly threatened And will suffer more droughts and floods… Precipitation will increase everywhere but in Southern ECA and Central Asia But water availability will decrease everywhere but Russia Increased precipitation intensity almost everywhere

A climate-smart world is possible… Annual public subsidies Private funding for energy R&D

But to meet the challenge, we must ACT NOW ACT TOGETHER ACT DIFFERENTLY

Act now: Today’s actions Determine tomorrow’s options Inertia in the climate system feasibility Inertia in the built environment costs Inertia in institutions and individuals’ behavior political momentum

Act now: Or the 2˚C trajectory is out of reach Projected annual total global emissions (billion tons of CO2 equivalent)

Act now: Much is at risk already and we have to learn to adapt Urban climate by 2100 (if we don’t act)

Gt of foregone mitigation Act together: Richer countries have to take the lead but all have a role to play Marginal mitigation cost ($/tCO2e) Advanced technologies: carbon capture and storage Gt of foregone mitigation - 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Efficiency in buildings Land-use and land-use change, mostly in developing countries Additional cost of achieving 10 Gt of mitigation 10 20 30 40 Mitigation potential (GtCO2e/year) Small hydro and nuclear in developing countries Renewable energy: Wind and solar Efficiency in motors, cars, and electricity co-eneration Marginal cost, all countries Mitigation measure in a developing country Mitigation measure in a high-income country Marginal cost, all countries Negative costs: Long-term savings outweigh initial costs Marginal cost, only high-income countries McKinsey 2009

Act differently: Radically transform energy systems Global primary energy mix (exajoules) 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year Energy efficiency

Act differently: To manage a changing world To take advantage of the opportunities that could arise Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine to “feed the world”? Warmer temperatures, carbon fertilization… but land and water? Agriculture and forestry yield gap much higher than potential increase from climate change Northern expansion…requires infrastructure Make robust rather than optimal decisions Agriculture yield gap 4.5 higher than potential increase from climate change Forests potential increase from better management: 60-80%; from warmer climate: 10-30%

Making it happen: New resources To reconcile equity and efficiency Requires massive scaling-up From $9 bn to $170-$275 Bn in 2030 A financing challenge: $250-$550 bn in associated mitigation finance It can be done: Requires all options available Financing = 3% global investments

To support communities and decisionmakers Low-tech and high-tech Making it happen: New instruments To support communities and decisionmakers Low-tech and high-tech The map shows levels of groundwater depletion in Tunisia (as a result of agricultural activities) esimated from satellites. Such technology didn't really exist a decade ago, but is increasingly accessible (and therefore used) to monitor scarce natural resources. Such technology can be instrumental in managing increasingly (climate) stressed systems (e.g. in agric. or forestry) more effectively. Such data, provided in a timely and reliable fashion, helps planners, farmers and decision-makers to make better, more informed, decisions. Ohter high-tech examples for new instruments would include satellite data to respond swiftly after disasters, map forests, track traffic, monitor coastal pollution, manage agric. commodity, provide early warning  - just to mention a few. But also GPS, cheap laptops/destops, wireless communication have changed how people access and use information.   _________________________

Increasing awareness and concern Making it happen: New pressures Increasing awareness and concern Individuals and organizations are responding Politics are changing More is needed to turn awareness into action “ Soft” policy tools - communication and education; social norms Create institutional mechanisms to deal with new challenges

http://blogs.worldbank.org/ climatechange/ http://worldbank.org/wdr2010 http://www.worldbank.org/eca/ climatechange