Homework 6 Responses There are only 3 shelves

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Homework 6 Responses There are only 3 shelves Most people did complete this assignment – the last Poisson step takes about 5 mins, for instance

This really was an assignment that can be done with a single program that does all the operations. For example, chunk of fortran code to do the last part.

Raw data (max) Amplitude is about 1 C per century But is this too noisy to really define a believable trend?

Use Z-test

Example – exp. smooth @ 0.8 (weights most recent years) – emerging trend better defined

1961-1990 baseline; max = +1.11

1880-1980 baseline; max = +1.28 (better)

Cheating; max = 1.52

Gaussian is really best But beware possible normalization issues – total area under kernel must = 1

Exp. Smoothing @ 0.5 is not useful or meaningful

Why might MIN be better to use for this kind of analysis?

A signal! Statistical Area Test – width = 20 years

Seasonal http://pages.uoregon.edu/bkorkor/html/noisydata.html What is best indicator?

Poisson Average = 6.5; exp(-6.5) = .0015