10.4 Campaigning in General Elections

How? Win the primary Campaign in general election

Elections “C” = regularly scheduled elections Congress set date for Presidential election First Tuesday after the first Monday in November in even-numbered years

3 types of general elections Presidential President, VP, House, 1/3 Senate Held every 4 years on even numbered years 2016 2012 2008 2004 2000

Midterm elections Take place in the even numbered years between presidential elections House of Representitives 1/3 of senate Many governors and state officials

Off Year elections Held in odd numbered years County supervisors City mayors City councils

Campaign Strategy Changes Primary = focus on winning party member votes General Election = focus on opposing opponent

Larger Appeal Must appeal to larger cross section of voters Modify “message” Become more “Moderate” Move to the middle can not upset the party base

Easier Said than done Can look like a “flip-flopper”

Issues vs Image In the weeks leading to election Increased public appearances Image = important Give standard “stump speech” Remain in public eye Use media

Coattail Effect Congressional candidates will make appearances with the presidential candidate Powerful figure will give extra boost to their campaign

Doesn’t always work Unpredictable Why?

Exposure Debates on TV Opportunity for votes to see & hear candidates discuss the issues Image is important here….. Can help or hurt Lose debate….may lose election

Getting Out The Vote Last few days before election…. Campaign workers focus on making sure all voters who are likely to support their candidate go out and actually cast their ballot

How to Vote Go to Polling Place in precinct Absentee Ballot (mail in ballot) Oregon = all are mail in Few states = early voting

Poll Watchers Help prevent voter fraud Monitor voting process No intimidation allowed

How to vote Paper ballots Electronic machines 2000 = punch card malfunction in several states Butterfly ballot = confusing

Solve problem Help America Vote Act 2002 Help states replace old voting machines and punch card ballots with new voting technology It’s been slow………………

Who Wins? Votes are counted Winner is declared In MOST presidential elections….the winner will receive the majority of the popular vote

2004 George W Bush won 51% of popular vote

3rd Parties When there are 3 or more candidates competing the winner sometimes receives lass than 50% Bill Clinton 1992 43% 1996 49% Ross Perot = 3rd party candidate

Winner Take All System Major effect on Presidential Elections In 48 states…….. Candidate who wins the popular vote in that state wins all of that state’s electoral votes

2 states Nebraska (5) Maine (4) Split the votes proportionally 3-2 4-1 5-0 2-2 3-1 4-0

Electoral College 538 A states electoral votes = # of Reps + # of senators Michigan has 16 electoral votes 14 Reps + 2 Senators = 16 EV

Strategy of EC 538 Electoral Votes 270 needed to win

That means… Candidates will focus on most populous states (more electoral votes) A candidate can win the election by winning the 11 largest states and losing the other 39 !!!!

Generally Candidates pay most attention to a few battleground states where the vote will be close And ignore the states where the outcome is predictable

Example Texas = R California = D Either Florida Ohio Page 184

EC Reinforces the 2 party system Most officials come from R or D Promotes stability in government BUT Excludes some candidates from office

Contrast Parliamentary System in Europe Proportional representation Vote for parties not candidates Whatever votes the party gets……it fills that percentage of seats with individuals from that party

EC Debate Would popular vote be better? Why EC? Framers did not trust voters…gave responsibility to group of electors who they felt were better suited to make that decision

Meaning?? A citizens “vote” for president is actually a “vote” for electors who have promised to support that candidate.

SO…. Back to 270 to win….. What if no one gets 270?? The House selects with each state casting one vote.

Controversy 1876 1888 2000 2016 The winner of the election actually lost the popular vote

Change it?? Would need an amendment Candidates would skip over small states Or…..use the district method

District Method? Yes…like Maine & Nebraska Whoever wins the congressional district gets the vote……so a split vote Problem?.....campaign only in specific districts rather than entire state

OR…. National Popular Vote States cast their electoral vote for the winner of the national popular vote. No amendment needed Maryland already passed but more states need to agree…..

Problem? State role in elections is reduced…thus….reduces federalism….

check How often is a presidential election? How often is a midterm election? How many electoral college votes are out there in total? How many do you need to win? Who decides the election if no candidate receives that number? Name 3 battle ground states