Understanding Credit Spreads – By Prof. Simply Simple

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Presentation transcript:

Understanding Credit Spreads – By Prof. Simply Simple A credit spread refers to the difference in interest rates between a corporate bond and a comparable Government bond. Suppose interest rate on a five-year corporate bond is 6 per cent and that on a similar five-year Government bond is 5 per cent. This means that the interest on a corporate bond consists of a risk-free rate of 5 per cent plus a credit spread of 1 per cent.

Also… Different securities in the market have different risk profiles. Therefore, compensation is paid to investors proportionately according to the risk taken by the investor in selecting a particular security.

For Example… Lets say there is a paper issued by the Govt. at 10% coupon. This means if person A subscribes to it, he will earn 10% after one year. So a Rs 100 investment will give him Rs 110 at the end of the year. Now suppose the Govt. decides to issue papers at 9% a week later. At the same time, person A has a desperate need to get cash and wishes to sell his paper.

So he goes to the market to sell the paper. Now had the Govt. not reduced the coupon rate, he would have probably sold the paper at Rs 100 to some one, say person B, in the secondary market. But since person B today can earn only 9% coupon for a fresh paper (i.e. Rs 9 for investment of Rs 100) and person A understands this, he tries to sell his paper at approximately Rs 100.5 and make a profit of Rs 0.50. However why would B agree to this? Let see further…

The buyer, person B, too agrees to buy it at Rs 100 The buyer, person B, too agrees to buy it at Rs 100.5 because the new rate being offered by the Govt. is 9% whereas at Rs 100.5 he is now earning a better return. How? Rs 110 (Value of the paper at the end of the tenure of one year) – Rs 100.5 (Investment) = Rs 9.5 (Absolute Gain) Because B chose to buy an old paper (10% coupon) from A from the secondary market, he is better off by making Rs 109.5 at the end of the tenure as against Rs 109 which he would make by investing in a fresh paper from the primary market. So as against the 9% return that fresh papers are offering, let us see what return did B manage to get…

The return that B will make will be 9. 5/100. 5 = 9 The return that B will make will be 9.5/100.5 = 9.4% which is better than the market rate of 9%. This new rate based on the market price is what is popularly known as “yield”. Thus we have seen that when the market price (NAV of MF scheme) goes up the yield actually comes down (from 10% to 9.4%).

Also remember… There will be a spread between two different kinds of papers due to the following reason: Credit quality – Lending money to the Govt. against its papers is any day safer than lending money to a corporate because the Govt. will never ever default. Hence, one is willing to park one’s money at a lower yield. But unusually high spread between papers as seen in the markets these days is due to available money chasing the Govt. papers, a situation that is not likely to be sustained in the long term.

In Other Words… The difference in yields between two different kinds of debt papers in the market is known as credit spread. For example, if the Govt. security is giving an yield of 5% while a corporate paper is giving an yield of 8%, the difference between them is 3% - which is the credit spread. However, the spread between a Govt. and good quality corporate papers isn't normally 3%. It is usually around 1.5%.

What this means is that the probability of the value of a corporate paper going up in the market is quite high due to the additional spread seen. So if you buy corporate papers in the current depressed situation, there are good chances that you could make a profit when the spreads reduce as expected.

To Sum Up The Yield is the income return on an investment. A credit spread is the yield spread, or difference in yield between different securities. When the yield actually comes down, the market price (the NAV of a MF scheme) actually goes up.

Hope you have now understood the concept of Credit Spreads In case of any query, please e-mail professor@tataamc.com