Voices of the Balkans: between hope and disenchantment Robert Manchin Gallup Europe

What is the Gallup Balkan Monitor? A multi-year comparative project in 7 countries A stratified random sample of 1000 in each country Fieldwork September-October 2008 Oversampling regions Face to face methodology Comparative questions Dedicated web-page Data dashboard / interactive www.balkan-monitor.eu HR BIH SRB ME KS MK AL

Emotional energy in new countries vs. BiH and Croatia

Strong feelings: Identification with “own country” (% very & extremely strongly) 65 33 51 58 10 52 76 65 79 42 61

% of people who can not identify at all or only a little with “Balkans” 60 41 47 34 32 10 21 23

Less emotional strength in identification with “Europe” (% very & extremely strongly) 26 15 22 25 67 35 49

Staying home or moving elsewhere? Ideally, would you like to move (permanently or temporarily) to another country, or would you prefer to continue living in [COUNTRY/ENTITY]?

Subjective momentum – getting better or worse

Corruption – getting around, finding solutions

Organized crime – popular pressure is particularly high in Croatia

On the road to the European Union

The majority feels welcomed by the EU Do you think that the European Commission wants [COUNTRY] to join the European Union?

No perceived difficulties in the form of popular support of further enlargement… Do you think that people in the European Union wants [COUNTRY] to join the European Union?

As Croats get closer to the date see more balanced costs and benefits Generally speaking, do you think that [COUNTRY]’s membership of the European Union WOULD BE a good thing, a bad thing, or neither good or bad?

Croats convinced that personally they would not benefit from the accession

The view of international community

Role of the international community over last 15-20 years Thinking of the last 15-20 years taking everything into account overall how would you describe the International community’s role in [COUNTRY]?

Relative (dis)TRUST IN INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS NATO > EU Albania, Kosovo Macedonia EU > NATO Serbia Croatia Montenegro BiH

Deep divisions within Macedonia

The reputation of the ICTY in the region In your views what best describes the proceedings of the ICTY?

Satisfaction with government performance

Majority sees a need for a new Constitution in Bosnia

But they mean different outcomes:

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