Guided Pathway Implementation Team Craig Hayward, PhD 11/13/2018 Deconstructing Developmental Pathways and Outcomes at Bakersfield College Guided Pathway Implementation Team Craig Hayward, PhD 11/13/2018

High-level takeaway “There is not a developmental placement that results in better throughput than placing comparably prepared students directly into transfer-level coursework.” – Peter Bahr It is important to look at actual historical throughput rates for various classes as well as the predicted throughput from Peter’s models.

Predicted Probabilities of Completing Transfer-level math within one year disaggregated by HS GPA and initial math course Figure derived from Bahr 2018, Table 16. Controls for gender, age (binary: under 20 vs. 20+), URM status, term of entry, FT/PT status in first term and whether they were placed via the test or multiple measures. Values for students at the 75th percentile of the test scaled score and GPA for each band.

Observed throughput rates for students starting in selected math classes by High School GPA OIE research provides the actual, historical throughput rates for these math courses as a companion to the predicted throughput rates from Bahr’s multivariate regression analysis. They correspond very closely to the predicted rates and the overall pattern is quite similar. What about the basic skills “mission” of community colleges? There is one line in the Title 5 system mission that pertains and makes it clear that remedial instruction is a secondary mission for the CCCs, to wit: “In addition to the primary mission of academic and vocational instruction, the community colleges shall offer instruction and courses to achieve all of the following: The provision of remedial instruction for those in need of it.” The instructional mission allows for the provision of remedial courses to students whose preparation for their chosen curricula is inadequate. Historically, we have grossly underestimated the percentage of incoming students who are prepared for substantive engagement with their program of study.