Generating Testable Ideas Chapter 2 Generating Testable Ideas

Generating Interesting and Novel Ideas The object of research is to extend human knowledge beyond what is already known Once a research study is complete, researchers will try to publish the results in a scientific journal, called a peer-reviewed journal

Generating Interesting and Novel Ideas Two criteria of importance to publishing a work can be met by answering two questions: Is my idea interesting? An interesting idea can potentially benefit society, test a prediction, or develop areas of research Journals prefer to publish papers that are going to be widely read and useful to their readers Is my idea novel? A novel idea is one that is original or new You must be able to show how your idea adds to or builds upon the scientific literature

Converting Ideas to Hypotheses and Theories Hypothesis – A specific, testable claim or prediction about what you expect to observe given a set of circumstances Theory – A broad statement used to account for an existing body of knowledge and also provide unique predictions to extend that body of knowledge Theory is tested in one of two ways: The predictions made by the theory can be tested The limitations of a theory can be tested

Converting Ideas to Hypotheses and Theories Hypotheses and theories allow researchers to organize a large body of research in a way that explains an understanding for evidence and provides predictions to organize the expectations for what we should observe Researchers state hypotheses that, after being rigorously tested, can develop into a theory

The story Wilhelm Von Osten believed that horses would prove to be as intelligent as people if only they were given a proper education Spent 4 years tutoring Hans using a method from German schools Hans could answer questions about history, arithmetic, etc even in languages he could not understand. Hoof tapping. Oskar Pfungst : psychologist

Converting Ideas to Hypotheses and Theories Wilhelm van Osten and his horse, Hans. Germany, beginning of 20th century.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRdAe3UAIVs

So why the fuss about theories? Grocery shopping with a chemist. What do people mean when they say “Evolution is just a theory”? Evolution vs. Universal Gravitation

McGuire’s Creative Hypothesis Generating in Psychology (1997) Focus of research methods courses is largely the process of research and testing of hypotheses Rarely are attempts made to explain or teach the method by which to generate hypotheses Creative “heuristics” for generating hypotheses can be taught

Some of McGuire’s heuristics… Recognizing and accounting for the oddity of occurrences

Some additional heuristics… Consider deviations (exceptions) from a general trend Introspective self-analysis Reversing the direction of causality for a banal hypothesis Exposure to tv violence causes increased aggression Attitude change produces behavioral change Shift your attention to the opposite pole of the problem Heuristic G22 – but just say no to drugs!

Creative Hypothesis Generating Worksheet

Developing Your Idea: Deduction and Induction

Performing a Literature Review Getting started: Choosing a research topic Getting organized: Choosing appropriate sources Keeping track of the types of sources you come across as you perform your review is important A source is any published or printed article, chapter, or book from which information can be obtained To organize the sources and make a literature review more efficient: Begin with a search of review articles Search only from peer-reviewed or other scientific sources

Performing a Literature Review You can categorize sources as primary and secondary Primary source: Any publication in which the works, ideas, or observations are those of the author Secondary source: Any publication that refers to works, ideas, or observations that are not those of the author Review articles provide a full summary of a research topic by an author who is regarded as an expert on that topic The difference between a primary and a secondary source: “We have shown that there are significant differences between males and females in the appearance of monochromatic lights…Across most of the visible spectrum males require a slightly longer wavelength than do females in order to experience the same hue.” (Abramov, Gordon, Feldman & Chavarga, 2012)

Performing a Literature Review To develop an idea you must perform a literature review Literature is the general body of published scientific knowledge The review is the search you perform of this general body of knowledge Key objective of the literature review is to develop new ideas that can be converted into a hypothesis that is interesting and novel Your literature review should contain multiple perspectives/considerations (evaluating contradictory evidence is a strength!)

Performing a Literature Review

Ethics in Focus: Giving Proper Credit One important reason for organizing your sources is to avoid confusion when giving credit for sources cited in your research study

Ethics in Focus: Giving Proper Credit 1. Obtain the primary source of an article you cite One way to find the primary source is to check the references of secondary sources 2. Avoid “abstracting” Instances in which an individual cites the full reference of some work after simply skimming through an abstract 3. Be aware of citation bias Citation bias occurs when an author or authors cite only evidence that supports their view and fail to cite conflicting evidence

Testing Your Idea: Confirmation and Disconfirmation Confirmational strategy – Method of testing a theory or hypothesis in which a positive result confirms the predictions made by that theory or hypothesis Often used to test a new theory or hypothesis Using an “if…then” logic statement, a confirmational strategy can be represented as follows: If A is true, then B is true B is true. Therefore, A is true.

it is a logical fallacy to affirm any  statement by merely showing that its consequences are true, because the truth of any consequence never  shows that the statement it derives from is true. How then can science (supposedly) confirm theories by looking to see whether their consequences occur or not?

Testing Your Idea: Confirmation and Disconfirmation Disconfirmational strategy – Method of testing a theory or hypothesis in which a positive result disconfirms the predictions made by that theory or hypothesis A benefit of using this strategy is that we can refute a theory or hypothesis with a positive result Best strategy for refuting a theory If A is true, then B cannot be true B is true. Therefore, A is not true.

Task: Is a statement about a set of integers from 1 to 10 true? “all of the numbers are even” “none of the numbers are even” “some of the numbers were even” They generated individual numbers, one possible number at a time, to test whether they were members of the set. 2 5 7 1 3 8 9

Ethics in Focus: Publication Bias Publication bias – Tendency for editors of peer- reviewed journals to preferentially accept articles that show positive results and reject those that show only negative results Researchers conduct studies to observe an effect, or significant outcome of a study The failure to observe an effect means that few, if any, peer-reviewed journals will allow the study to be published Publication bias feeds citation bias and vice versa

Ethics in Focus: Publication Bias Keep in mind that while positive results reported in the peer-reviewed literature can be trusted, take caution in knowing that many negative results may not be included in your search