Optimising Capacity and Competence ISMOR August 2002 Dr Craig Smith, Head of Capability Analysis, MBDA (UK)

Scope Competence and Technical Risk Capacity and Operational Risk Capability - System of Systems Developing the requirements and the solution Smart Acquisition opportunities Summary

Competence (1) The ability to meet a technical requirement Thresholds Black or white, or shades of gracefully degrading grey Capability Options

Competence (2) Trade-offs between different levels of competence Technical risk is associated with the level of competence focus for risk reduction/ technology demonstrators Engagement Command Surveillance Mobility Support Survivability Flexibility Option 1 Option 2

Capacity The quantity of equipment/ men/ systems The force mix between components of the total system “Soft” measured in scenarios thresholds are assumption dependent how much operational risk can be tolerated? Where is the risk reduction for operational risk exercises? testing of tactics/ CONOPS?

The Total System of Systems Support philosophy DOCTRINE Capability B Capability C Fuzzy Boundaries CONOPS Organisation C4I STAR Support & training concept Architecture Portfolio of complementary systems Optimise total capability not individual systems

Potential elements of EIAD Key questions How many systems? Overlap Synergy Complementarity Co-ordination Architecture MSAM GB Sensors BMD VSHORAD BMC4I Airborne Sensors SHORAD Fighter Aircraft

Competence How well do we do the task Capacity How much of it URD BoI Competence & Capacity Capability Competence How well do we do the task Capacity How much of it URD BoI Bad weather performance 1000 or 2000 missiles Range - depends on density Requires iteration to get the trade-off right Architecture Platform numbers Need to work competence and capacity together as part of the same study

Systems Engineering Process Identify & Challenge Boundaries Ensure these are Underlying Needs Explore the Problem Decision Capture Requirements Analyse Propose Total System Options Innovate - Cost Reduction - Synergy - Modularity Broad Consideration of Measures of Comparison

Developing the requirements and the solution Complex problems require iteration too difficult to get requirements right first time impact can only be determined by a view of solutions interdependence of competence and capability need to perform trade-off studies Allow for evolution / incremental acquisition in the threat, and in the responding systems balance goals with affordable steps

Smart Acquisition Opportunities Partnership between MoD and Industry Allows each analysis community to share their insights industry to provide insight how requirements affect cost and technical risk Dstl to provide insight into campaign issues and operational risk Expose the high level trade-offs in capability, cost and risk

Summary Competence and capacity together drive many key system requirements Applying systems engineering to the whole problem can provide the optimised solution Optimisation of the capability must address both capacity and competence within the same study Do it SMART - analysts of the UK unite!