The Post-Cold War World IAFS 4500

Did The Bomb Win WWII? Gar Alperovitz – Japan wanted to surrender, looking for Stalin to mediate Supreme Council was already meeting before Nagasaki bomb Conventional bombing (Firebombing of Tokyo) was more effective Stalin enters the war after Potsdam What do you think?

Early Cold War Events Berlin Airlift Mr. X letter Containment NSC 68 Truman Doctrine National Security Act of 47 Triumph of Mao in China Korean War NATO

Height of the Cold War 1950-1962 Missed Opportunity? Red Scare/Army McCarthy Hearings Bomber Gap/Missile Gap Sputnik Austrian Peace Treaty Hungary/Suez Cuban Missile Crisis

Thawing the Cold War 1962-69 “The Best and the Brightest” The Berlin Wall Vietnam Prague Spring MAD Sino-Soviet Split

Redefinition of the Cold War 1969-77 SALT Ford/Angola Ping-pong diplomacy Yom Kippur War Watergate Carter Doctrine

Cold War Deterrence 1. Broadcast 2. Capability (not Secret) 3. Credibility McNamara equation for deterrence “The Best and the Brightest”

Cold War WMD Terms Nuclear Triad Nuclear Artillery, Honest John, Davey Crockett Range, Yield, Accuracy, Reliability, Survivability & Readiness ICBM, IRBM, GLCM, TLAM(N) & SLCM SIOP SLBM’s Blue/Gold Crews Counterforce/Countervalue MIRV & MRV Secure 2nd Strike Looking Glass Failsafe PAL Strategic v. Tactical Nukes ABM (Galosh/Safeguard)

Cold War WMD Terms II 60K Nuclear Weapons Force de Frappe Minimum Deterrence MAD Massive Retaliation Preventive War /Preemptive Strike Hardened/Dispersed Firebreak

Evolution of Cold War Strategy U.S. USSR Truman – Containment Ike – Massive Retaliation JFK – Flexible Response Nixon – MAD Carter – Human Rights Reagan – Roll back Stalin – BofP Khrushchev – Peaceful Coexistence Brezhnev – MAD (Tula 74) Gorbachev

The End of the Cold War Reagan vs. Gorbachev Realism & Deterrence vs. Culture & Idealism

The Reagan Buildup Did the Reagan buildup win the Cold War?

Or did Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev have a bigger impact? Generational Change WWII Memory The Missing Generation Education “The Thaw” Cultural Change Economic Reality

Herman Kahn “Thinking about the Unthinkable” 1964 and 1984 Twelve Nonissues Nuclear arms control will save mankind Planetary Govt. to achieve arms control Goal should be disarmament Nuclear Freeze Deterrence can be made 100% reliable Deterrence will eventually fail

Herman Kahn “Thinking about the Unthinkable” 1964 and 1984 Twelve Nonissues (cont.) Damage limiting is infeasible There is reliable damage limiting Nuclear war can be limited There is no possibility of limited nuclear war The US or USSR could win a nuclear war

How would Nuclear War Begin? “Bolt from the Blue” Pre-emptive Attack Conventional conflict escalates into nuclear war Accidental use of nuclear weapons Nuclear war started by smaller nuclear power or terrorist group

Accidental Nuclear War Accidental launch vs. Inadvertent Launch Nuclear Posture Command & Control Launch on Warning vs. Launch on Attack/Impact Internal threats to control Personnel reliability

Utility of Nuclear Weapons Deterrence Security/Defense Compellance/coercion Regime maintenance Prestige

US Reasons for Nuclear Weapons Deter the Soviet Union/Russia Protect NATO Limited Nuclear War? NATO underspending Deter Roque States Get a piece of the nuclear pie

Military Utility of Nuclear Weapons MK-54 SADB-57 Nuclear Depth Bomb