Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

JMA Takayuki MATSUMURA (Forecast Department, JMA) C Asia Air Survey co., ltd New Forecast Technologies for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation 1.

Advertisements

Ewan OConnor, Robin Hogan, Anthony Illingworth Drizzle comparisons.

Implementation and test of HRLDAS in CWB

Report of the Q2 Short Range QPF Discussion Group Jon Ahlquist Curtis Marshall John McGinley - lead Dan Petersen D. J. Seo Jean Vieux.

Aerosol-Precipitation Responses Deduced from Ship Tracks as Observed by CloudSat Matthew W. Christensen 1 and Graeme L. Stephens 2 Department of Atmospheric.

“OLYMPEX” Physical validation Precipitation estimation Hydrological applications Field Experiment Proposed for November-December th International.

Robert J Zamora NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division Boulder, CO Arizona HMT Soil Moisture Network.

The Influence of Basin Size on Effective Flash Flood Guidance

NAFE’06 Planning Workshop 1 A BMRC and eWater Perspective Clara Draper Dr. Jeffrey Walker & Dr. Peter Steinle (BMRC)

The Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) over Mesoscale Surface Heterogeneity 25 June 2009 Song-Lak Kang Research Review.

Sensitivity of High-Resolution Simulations of Hurricane Bob (1991) to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations SCOTT A. BRAUN AND WEI-KUO TAO PRESENTATION.

The 8 th GAME International Science Panel Meeting (Thailand, November, 2003) Dr. C. H. Cho Meteorological Research Institute, KMA

Remote Sensing of Hydrological Variables over the Red Arkansas Eric Wood Matthew McCabe Rafal Wojcik Hongbo Su Huilin Gao Justin Sheffield Princeton University.

Using 925 mb Temperatures to Improve Operational River Forecasts Ronald S. W. Horwood Meteorologist National Weather Service Northeast River Forecast Center.

Case Studies of Warm Season Cutoff Cyclone Precipitation Distribution Jessica Najuch Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences University at Albany,

Modeling and Analysis of Snowpack over the Western United States Jiming Jin Departments of Watershed Sciences and Plants, Soils, and Climate.

Globally distributed evapotranspiration using remote sensing and CEOP data Eric Wood, Matthew McCabe and Hongbo Su Princeton University.

Characteristics of an Anomalous, Long-Lived Convective Snowstorm Rebecca L. Ebert Department of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Sciences University.

A Diagnostic Analysis of a Difficult- to-Forecast Cutoff Cyclone from the 2008 Warm Season Matthew A. Scalora, Lance F. Bosart, Daniel Keyser Department.

An Examination of the Tropical System – Induced Flooding in Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania in 2004.

Unstable Science Question 2 John Hanesiak CEOS, U. Manitoba Unstable Workshop, Edmonton, AB April 18-19, 2007.

Chapter 7 Lesson 1 Air and Weather & Lesson 4 Climate

Factors that drive atmospheric processes

The National Environmental Agency of Georgia L. Megrelidze, N. Kutaladze, Kh. Kokosadze NWP Local Area Models’ Failure in Simulation of Eastern Invasion.

Satellite remote sensing in the classroom: Tracking the onset, propagation and variability of the North American monsoon Dorothea Ivanova Embry-Riddle.

Multi-mission synergistic activities: A new era of integrated missions Christa Peters- Lidard Deputy Director, Hydrospheric and Biospheric Sciences, Goddard.

David R. Vallee Hydrologist-in-Charge NOAA/NWS/Northeast River Forecast Center Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference.

Coupling of the Common Land Model (CLM) to RegCM in a Simulation over East Asia Allison Steiner, Bill Chameides, Bob Dickinson Georgia Institute of Technology.

Sara Vieira Committee members: Dr. Peter Webster

Oceans and Weather 8.10C.

Using the SPoRT MET Scripts to Assess the WRF EMS for a Southeast Texas Heavy Rainfall Event Patrick Blood and Lance Wood 19 Z.

The Role of Antecedent Soil Moisture on Variability of the North American Monsoon System Chunmei Zhu a, Yun Qian b, Ruby Leung b, David Gochis c, Tereza.

Diurnal Water and Energy Cycles over the Continental United States Alex Ruane John Roads Scripps Institution of Oceanography / UCSD April 28 th, 2006 This.

Institute of Hydrology Slovak Academy of Sciences Katarína Stehlová 6 th ALPS-ADRIA SCIENTIFIC WORKSHOP 30 April - 5 May, 2007 Obervellach, Austria Assessment.

Meteorological Data Analysis Urban, Regional Modeling and Analysis Section Division of Air Resources New York State Department of Environmental Conservation.

An Examination of the Climatology and Environmental Characteristics of Flash Flooding in the Binghamton, New York County Warning Area Stephen Jessup M.S.

Science Discipline Overview: Atmosphere (large-scale perspective)  How might large-scale atmospheric challenges add to the scientific arguments for MOSAIC?

Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications: Introduction to NASA’s Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications:

Remote sensing for surface water hydrology RS applications for assessment of hydrometeorological states and fluxes –Soil moisture, snow cover, snow water.

Isentropic Analysis of January Snowstorm Across Eastern Virginia and Lower Maryland Tim Gingrich and Brian Hurley NOAA/NWS Wakefield VA Isentropic.

Global Warming and Water Resources. Frequently asked Questions Is global warming occurring? Why does global warming occur? How do we predict global warming?

A Numerical Study of Early Summer Regional Climate and Weather. Zhang, D.-L., W.-Z. Zheng, and Y.-K. Xue, 2003: A Numerical Study of Early Summer Regional.

A New Soil Moisture Observational Network In Arizona: Design, and Preliminary Results Robert Zamora NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division Ed Clark NOAA/NWS.

A Soil-water Balance and Continuous Streamflow Simulation Model that Uses Spatial Data from a Geographic Information System (GIS) Advisor: Dr. David Maidment.

Transitioning Unique NASA Data and Research Technologies to Operations The Utility of the Real-Time NASA Land Information System for Drought Monitoring.

By Dr. H. Kabelwa. What is WRF? Is the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Is a next-generation meso-scale numerical weather prediction system Is designed.

Evapotranspiration Estimates over Canada based on Observed, GR2 and NARR forcings Korolevich, V., Fernandes, R., Wang, S., Simic, A., Gong, F. Natural.

Ensemble variability in rainfall forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011) Molly Smith, Ryan Torn, Kristen Corbosiero, and Philip Pegion NWS Focal Points: Steve.

Overview The FSU 1-Dimensional Planetary Boundary Layer Model was utilized courtesy of Dr. Paul Ruscher, to examine the changes that in soil moisture content.

Case Study of Torrential Rain and Flood in the Merrimack River Valley in May 2006 Jian-Hua Qian University of Massachusetts Lowell Jian-Hua Qian University.

NCEP Vision: First Choice – First Alert – Preferred Partner NOAA Hydrometeorological TestBed at the NCEP Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) Faye.

A JUNE MONSOON? David L. Mitchell 1, Dorothea Ivanova 1 and David Gochis 2 1.Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada 2. National Center for Atmospheric.

Shannon Moore Nicole Sienkiewicz.  Take a moment to fill out what you know in the worksheet*.  *Note that the numbers do not indicate the order in which.

1 Xiaoyan Jiang, Guo-Yue Niu and Zong-Liang Yang The Jackson School of Geosciences The University of Texas at Austin 03/20/2007 Feedback between the atmosphere,

COSMO model simulations for COPS IOP 8b, 15 July 2007 Jörg Trentmann, Björn Brötz, Heini Wernli Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Johannes Gutenberg-University.

Factors Affecting Climate. WHAT IS CLIMATE? Climate is the average year-by-year conditions of temperature, precipitation, winds, and clouds of an entire.

Impact of Cloud Microphysics on the Development of Trailing Stratiform Precipitation in a Simulated Squall Line: Comparison of One- and Two-Moment Schemes.

Heavy Rain Climatology of Upper Michigan Jonathan Banitt National Weather Service Marquette MI.

Comparison of Tropical Cyclones Cindy (2005) and Ivan (2004)

Date of download: 10/25/2017 Copyright © ASME. All rights reserved.

Unit 4 Weather ©Mark Place,

Alan F. Srock and Lance F. Bosart

The November 26, 2014 banded snowfall case in southern NY

Mark A. Bourassa and Qi Shi

WEATHER VS. CLIMATE.

COAMPS Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System Developed by FNMOC and NRL (1996) Operational - MEL/FNMOC Experimental - NRL-MRY 27 km Spatial.

Weather ©Mark Place,

Operational Oceanography OC/MR3570 William Swick

Orographic Influences on Rainfall Associated with Tropical Cyclone

The Flux Model of Orographic Rain

Presentation transcript:

Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Examining the Influence of Antecedent Soil Moisture in Numerical Simulations of the 27-28 July 2007 Rainfall Event in Pennsylvania and New York Stephen Jessup Stephen Colucci Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Cornell University

Presentation Overview Synoptic conditions Model validation Altered initial soil moisture experiments Boundary layer effects Precipitation results Summary

Project Objectives Simulate a precipitation event with reasonable accuracy using WRF Run simulations with altered initial soil moisture Better understand role of surface-atmospheric coupling and resulting influence on precipitation

Synoptic Conditions on 27-28 July 2007

HPC Surface Analysis 12Z 27 July

Surface Analysis 00Z 27 July

850 mb Analysis 00Z 28 July

700 mb Analysis 00Z 28 July

500 mb Analysis 00Z 28 July

300 mb Analysis 00Z 28 July

HPC Surface Analysis 12Z 28 July

Radar-estimated Storm Total Precipitation

Rain Gauge Totals

Comparison of Rain Gauge and Radar Estimated Precipitation

Simulations of 27-28 July Rainfall Event

27-28 July 07 Model Results

Model Storm Total Precipitation

Radar-estimated Storm Total Precipitation

Altered Initial Soil Moisture Experiments

Simple Hypothesis 1 Altering soil moisture affects evaporation, which in turn affects atmospheric boundary layer moisture Increased soil moisture → increased lower atmospheric moisture Decreased soil moisture → decreased lower atmospheric moisture

Differences in total surface moisture flux

Differences in specific humidity, 3 hours into model run (925 mb)‏ July07qdiff00Z925mb.gif

Differences in specific humidity, 9 hours into model run July07qdiff00Z925mb.gif

Simple Hypothesis 2 Changing soil moisture affects the Bowen ratio, which modifies boundary layer heating processes In runs with altered initial soil moisture, boundary layer temperature differences between runs should be negative for increased soil moisture and positive for decreased soil moisture

Differences in T, 3 hours into model run July07qdiff00Z925mb.gif

Differences in T, 6 hours into model run July07Tdiff21Z925mb.gif

Differences in T, 9 hours into model run July07Tdiff00Z925mb.gif

Simple Hypothesis 3 Altering soil moisture alters atmospheric conditions from the lower boundary In model runs with altered initial soil moisture, atmospheric moisture and temperature differences between runs should be greatest in lower atmosphere and decrease with height

Profile of differences in q, 00Z SoilM 1.5 -1.0 July07qdiff00ZSoilM1.5profile.gif

Profile of T difference between 1.5 and 1.0 Soil Moisture runs at 03Z July07tempdiffprofile03Z

Influence of Altered Initial Soil Moisture on Precipitation

Radar Estimated Precipitation 06Z

Model Simulated Precipitation 06Z July07Run9precip.gif

Precipitation from Altered Initial Soil Moisture Runs 06Z July0706ZPrecipSoilM.gif July07PrecipSoilM.gif

Precipitation Differences Compared to 1.0 Soil Moisture Run

Summary WRF simulates precipitation field from 27-28 July 2007 rainfall event reasonably well Boundary layer effects of modeled changes in initial soil moisture match simple predictions Changes in initial soil moisture modify the mesoscale environment, which in turn affects precipitation generation Earlier initiation of heavy precipitation with enhanced soil moisture More widespread region of moderate to heavy precipitation with enhanced soil moisture

Future Work Observational study (using NARR) to examine flash flood events in Northeast U.S. 2003-2007 Do synoptic/mesoscale conditions differ from those of Central U.S. heavy precipitation events? Analysis of basin-averaged rainfall estimates using AMBER