and the Future of Historical Family Demography Microdata and the Future of Historical Family Demography  

Univac 1105 at Census, 1960

The First Microdata: The 1960 Census Samples Distributed on 13 Univac Tapes (or 18,000 punchcards) Cover, 1960 Census Microdata Codebook

The 1970 Public Use Samples 60 times the size of 1960 Much more detail (especially geography) 1960 sample expanded 10-fold Same format and coding as 1970 Led to an explosion of research on change

Khartoum, CBS-Sudan

1973 Census Tapes arrive at Muller Media (New York) via Barcelona

Dhaka, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

Darroch and Ornstein, 1871 Canada National historical* microdata collections, 1978-1983: number of person records Preston, 1900 USA Darroch and Ornstein, 1871 Canada * historical means before 1960

Sager and Baskerville, 1901 Canada National historical microdata collections, 1978-2002: number of person records IPUMS, 1850-1920 USA Winsborough, 1940 and 1950 USA Sager and Baskerville, 1901 Canada Anderson, 1851 Britain

National historical microdata collections, 1978-2011: number of person records Inwood and Jack, 1891 Canada; Dillon, 1852 Canada; Garðarsdóttir, 1801-1901 Iceland; + Norway, Scotland, Sweden, USA IPUMS, 1880 USA and Dillon, 1881 Canada Schürer and Woollard, 1881 England and Wales; Thorvaldsen, et al. 1900 Norway

National historical microdata collections, 1978-2015: number of person records USA 1940 Ancestry.Com, USA 1850-1930 Scotland Schürer, 1851-1911 England and Wales

IDS/EHPS

Mosaic

Major New National Projects The China Multi-Generational Panel Dataset Norwegian Historical Population Registers Sweden POPLINK Netherlands LINKS Great Britain I-CeM

Facebook has data on 800 million people We have data on 912 million people USA 165 International 481 Historical 266 Total 912

Facebook has data on 800 million people In a few more years, it will double again USA 201 International 721 Historical 810 Total 1732

Participating Countries

Age classification for school enrollment The Power of Microdata Customized measures: Variables based on combined characteristics of family and household members, capitalizing on the hierarchical structure of the data Multivariate analysis: Analyze many individual, household, and community characteristics simultaneously Interoperability: Harmonize data across time and space Age classification for school enrollment in published U.S. Census

Why Do We Need Historical Microdata? Space and Time Fine-grained contextual analysis of processes of change Microdata allows interoperability across time and place Can merge population data with data from other sources, hinging on geography Data mining can exploit large scale

Three Points We should use appropriate measures We should study spatial variation We should study long-run historical change

Spatial Analysis John Hajnal The “Hajnal Line” 31 31

2009 1972

The Great Family Transition Decline of intergenerational coresidence Rise of marital instability Separation of fertility and marriage Rise of cohabitation and solitary residence Decline of marriage Increasing signs that these changes may be global in scope

Ideational Theory Rise of individualism Secularization Norms and values have a life of their own

Percent of the Labor Force Employed in Agriculture, United States, 1800-2000

Structural Change Norway: % in commercial and industrial occupations rose from 13% in 1801 to 42% in 1900 U.S. and Norway: % of women in wage-labor jobs doubled from 1870 to 1900

Power, Patriarchy, and Structural Change Individual-level incentives and constraints Wage labor shifted balance of power Fathers and sons Men and women Structural transformation undermined patriarchal authority

Coale: Ready, Willing, and Able Must be within “calculus of conscious choice” Must be advantageous Must be possible

Agenda for Investigating the Family Transition Assess family choices at the individual level Describe the geography and chronology of family change Trace spatial associations between measures of family change and secularization Compare the family transition to the fertility transition at the level of families, communities, economic and cultural regions Use comparative longitudinal sources to evaluate material incentives for family transitions Use multi-level analysis with complete-count data to assess impact of local economic opportunities and conditions on family decisions

Definitions (United Nations 2001) Family: A group of people residing in the same household who recognize a kin relationship, ordinarily through descent, marriage, or adoption Household: Person or group of people who live together and make common provision for food or other essentials for living Kin group: A group of people who recognize a relationship through descent, marriage, or adoption

Scope of Family Demography (Cherlin 2003) The configuration of families, households, and kin groups Transitions that affect those configurations Such transitions include departure from parental home, marriage, marital dissolution, cohabitation