Rate we’ve borrowed at

But, but,but….

THE AMERICAN ECONOMY IS ALREADY GREAT…

AND IT’S STILL WORKING ON THE WHOLE… BUT BE CAREFUL OF AVERAGES (Michael Beckley)

AND IT WILL STAY GREAT IF WE MAKE GOOD FISCAL CHOICES

US R&D is #1

Even if we cut defense, we are well ahead of our nearest adversary (Michael Beckley)

We are by far the world’s dominant military

WHAT MAKES AN EMPIRE AN EMPIRE? You say “empire,” I say “hegemony”… what’s the difference? What makes an empire?: Multi-national (i.e., ethnic) blocs of territory brought together by force Hierarchy and unequal status Maintained by force as a last resort: economic dependence through monopoly, divide & conquer, & institutions Mobilizing at home: Missions of cultural, racial, and religious superiority Intl. aggression & dual standards: Claims of manifest destiny and obligations to spread “civilization” Empires tend to be cyclical and can fall fast Free riding issues: The main threat to empire is economic (Ferguson) The costs of empire and over-reach (share of GDP used to project power) Entitlement, debt, and too big to fail Niall Ferguson: Empires are “complex systems” like economic and environmental systems… Tipping points make it so that small changes can cause explosive changes very quickly. This means that perceptions are huge. Ferguson: The main trick is to manage inevitable decline Hal Brands—An era of nationalism will not help us to manage decline

IS AMERICA A FAILING EMPIRE? THE CASE AGAINST Is this another one of those conservative vs. “liberal” things? While liberal critics call the US an empire, “American exceptionalism” cuts across the parties and main political ideologies Can we really have imperialistic ideology? We don’t even like our own government (but, we support US power abroad in ways that would be inconceivable at home… Think about data on imprisoning some innocent people vs. using drone attacks) Isn’t the US is institutionally-designed to limit imperialist urges? It once was, but that changed with “the imperial presidency”? (War Powers Act?) Are any of “our” territories held against their will? Pax Americana: Is there such a thing as a noble empire? John Ikenberry Did our empire slip away with Vietnam and then disappear with the collapse of USSR as a counter empire? (look at how we behave in Iraq) Globalization subjects all states to the same forces, and the by many standards, the US is a “consensual” leader among almost equals What is the true nature of America’s hold on power? Soft, sticky, or hard?

IS AMERICA AN EMPIRE? MAYBE The range of US interventions, 1945-2003: -More than 40 coup attempts -More than 30 mvts. put down -25 countries bombed -750 foreign bases in 130 countries Washington’s hawks are a constant: From the Cold Warriors to the NeoCons A constant war economy: More than half of global defense spending A formal insistence in superiority in all dimensions of force and a stated commitment to remain as such with capability to fight multiple fronts Is globalization centrally linked to the perpetual supremacy of the American economy, culture, technology and ideology? A key fact: the US is richer, more innovative, and more powerful relative to other great powers than was the case in 1991 Is there a new “White man’s burden”? Our continued obsession with telling the Middle East and Asia how they should live… What does everyone else think about this? Institutionalization of American goals through IGOs

EVEN IF THE US IS AN EMPIRE, IS THAT ALL BAD? Why again do empires fall and what does that tell us about what happens next? Unbalanced intl. systems are violent systems Would the world be better off without us? What’s the alternative for leadership? If not us, then who will lead the world?: Europe, China, India, a Caliphate? How about no leader at all… Thinking about democratization of the state as an example. Would apolarity or multipolarity be better? Probably not because no empire creates a power vacuum Ikenberry’s defense of American hegemony on its own merits

WHY DOES DEBT MATTER TO US HEGEMONY? US debt—Numbers at the front tell us that we’ll have to change the trend or they will be changed for us. How will increasing debt get us to a tipping point? Treasury bills, interest rates? What happens first? (Michael Mazarr’s article) Political instability and chaos at home because govt. can’t be all things to all people Ability to project power credibly declines Soft power goes away—What argument will we have to credibly say we are a model and a leader of the free world?

WHERE ELSE IS THE US FALLING BEHIND? Data for much of this is at the front end of the presentation… Overall quality of life measures: #10 and falling; Life expectancy: 27th; ; Infant mortality: 33rd; Deaths of children under 5: 37th Math and Science: 15 yr olds rank 25th and 17th College graduation?: 12th in the world and this was before the collapse. Research and development spending? #11 and very inefficient (politics); there are particular collective action issues with basic science (the time-line and public goods problem that lies with relying on both VC and political disbursements) Tax rates: lowest in the industrial world along with Japan (this may be good news, but it reflects a more profound attitudinal issue) Inequality, lawyers per capita, incarceration rates, executions, and hand-gun deaths: At least we’re number 1 at something (although we’re only #2 at carbon consumption) Very hard to fix many of these problems because of our political choices: Why is our political system so weak at dealing with this? American exceptionalism, 2-party systems, and veto points (And campaign finance means things will get worse)