Portfolio Solutions Group

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Presentation transcript:

Portfolio Solutions Group September 2018 Susan Spence Brandon Hutchison Vice-President & Portfolio Manager (PSG) Assistant Vice-President & Portfolio Manager (PSG)

To provide our clients with strong long-term investment performance By the numbers GLC Asset Management Group Ltd. is a leading investment management firm with one focus: To provide our clients with strong long-term investment performance $55.1 5 110+ 50+ 75+ 21 billion assets under management investment divisions years of avg. industry experience unique mandates years of history team members Source: GLC │As at September 30, 2018

GLC’s Investment Divisions top-down/ bottom-up all-cap growth quantitative fundamental factor modeling bottom-up concentrated large-cap deep fundamental analysis fixed income multi-factor absolute and relative performance objectives forward- looking asset allocation risk and target date defined independent analysis and oversight

Meet the PSG team Susan Spence, CFA Brandon Hutchison, CFA Vice-President & Portfolio Manager Brandon Hutchison, CFA Assistant Vice-President & Portfolio Manager Experience: Experience: 24 years investment industry experience with multi-asset funds and international, U.S. and Canadian equity mandates. 14 years investment industry experience in research, analysis and portfolio management focused on multi-asset funds. Igor Ivanic, CFA Senior Analyst Justin Truong Analyst Experience: Experience: 2 years of investment experience specializing in performance analysis and client management 6 years investment industry experience specializing in data management and analysis.

PSG’s Investment Solutions Target Risk Target Date Asset Class Managed Fund Solutions A customized investment solution based on an investor’s risk tolerance A long-term investment solution tailor-made to meet a future financial goal A multi-manager approach focused on a single asset-class A diversified investment solution with a selection of fixed-income to equity allocations to choose from Asset allocation funds – A customized investment solution based on an investor’s risk tolerance. Income allocation funds –each solution with specific focus on funds that generate income (dividends and interest) as well as capital gains. Managed fund solutions – A diversified investment solution with a selection of fixed-income to equity allocations to choose from. • Core managed solutions – each solution is made up of funds from multiple investment managers affiliated with Canada Life. • Partner managed solutions – each solution is made up of multiple funds primarily from investment managers external to Canada Life. Core Target Risk A core building block when creating a customized investment solution Core Managed Income Target Risk Partner Managed

PSG’s 5 core investment principles Multi-level active management adds value A tailored approach to portfolio construction improves investor outcomes Each component is a building block Direct and ongoing access to managers Broad access to investment options enhances opportunity

PSG’s investment process

Portfolio construction Underlying fund selection We seek out: concentrated portfolios style-specific approaches process driven active managers proven track record We don’t look at a fund in isolation. It must add value to the portfolio as a whole. Drive stronger returns? and/or Does it dampen volatility? and/or Does it create opportunities to enhance the benefits of active management? (e.g. adds the ability to strategically align the portfolio to current market views through adjustments to duration, regional exposure, etc.)

Portfolio construction a tailored approach to meeting clients needs The best approach to allocating risk and opportunity can, and should, differ across the spectrum of risk tolerances and time horizons.

portfolio construction Investment process A proprietary, disciplined investment process designed to deliver added value within each core element. Investment Process portfolio construction active management rigorous oversight

Disciplined rebalancing Target and drift methodology Asset mix: fixed income / equity split allowed to drift +/- 2 percentage points Individual fund: fixed income funds +/- 10% of target allocation equity funds +/- 20% of target allocation Daily cash flows used to offset market movements: reduces frequency and cost of rebalancing When rebalancing is triggered, all underlying funds brought back to target weights

Asset Allocation: Target Risk Funds Strategic Asset Mix Equity* Fixed Income Conservative 25% 75% Moderate 40% 60% Balanced Advanced 80% 20% Aggressive 100% 0% Equity allocation equally split between domestic and foreign * For strategic asset allocation purposes, Real Estate is classified as Canadian Equity Fixed income benchmark: 100% FTSE Canada Universe Index Equity benchmark: 40% S&P/TSX Composite Index, 60% MSCI World (CAD) Real Estate benchmark: 100% S&P/TSX Composite Index

Portfolio Solutions Group Positioning & Outlook

Current positioning general preference for higher yield/income-oriented mandates across the portfolios overweight position in corporate bonds and international bonds a short duration position relative to the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index preference for US over EAFE within foreign equity allocations moderating maintain exposure to infrastructure at the conservative end maintain exposure to emerging markets, resources and smaller cap at the aggressive end

Target risk funds Overall goals Fixed income funds are optimally diversified by asset class, region, style and manager underlying mandates are consistent with stated style underlying mandates have a skilled investment team, with a strong, repeatable process funds are constructed with sufficient levers in place to accommodate asset mix adjustments in line with evolving forward looking views Fixed income broad range of fixed income mandates at the conservative end giving the investor exposure to the different sectors/credit qualities of the market more conservative choice of fixed income mandates at the aggressive end to offset some of the higher equity market risk Source: GLC │As at September 30, 2018

Target risk funds Equities linear transition of the value growth score from ~100 at the conservative end to ~190 at the aggressive end (all scores still within core V-G box) linear transition of the size score with larger cap exposure at the conservative end declining to a more all-cap exposure at the aggressive end greater emphasis on the more stable dividend paying/income oriented stocks at the conservative end to align with the investors’ lower risk tolerance where available, optimal real estate allocations of 6%, 8%, 10%, 10%, 10% in the respective target risk funds (conservative – aggressive) Source: GLC │As at September 30, 2018

PSG outlook comments – Q3 2018 Capital market returns in Q3 2018 were mixed, with US equities continuing to lead the way and driving global developed equity returns as a whole into positive territory. However, Canadian, EAFE and emerging market equities all experienced losses in the period, as did the domestic bond market. The negative impact of rising interest rates on certain asset classes was evident, and global trade was another area of focus for the markets. Within North America there was welcome progress in trade discussions as the tentative agreement between the US and Mexico in late August was followed by a last minute agreement in principle between the US and Canada at the end of September. This progress paves the way for a replacement to NAFTA and helps lift a cloud of uncertainty created by the regional trade dispute. Progress has been harder to come by elsewhere, as Brexit terms and the trade relationship between the US and China remain in flux. We expect trade manoeuvring, geopolitical stress, and government and central bank policy to be key determinants of sentiment in the upcoming quarters. We are maintaining a balanced approach in our funds from both an asset class and regional perspective, as we weigh the less synchronized but continued strength in the global economy and a still attractive equity risk premium with the risks mentioned above alongside generally full valuations. Earnings growth has been supportive of multiples, but must continue in order to further extend this business cycle. For now, while the end of the business cycle is a more common point of discussion than in the past and the interest rate curve is flatter than it has been this cycle, recession risks remain muted.

PSG outlook comments – Q3 2018 The Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate by 0.25% to 1.50% in July and one more hike is anticipated by year end. The Federal Reserve raised the overnight rate in September to a range of 2.00%-2.25% and guided markets to expect one more increase at the December meeting. The ongoing monetary tightening activity of central banks pressured bond prices in the third quarter. Within fixed income allocations our key positioning themes remain being short duration, overweight credit and overweight international exposure. Our credit overweight primarily consists of investment grade bonds, with some select exposure to high yield debt. Having a shorter duration protects against rising interest rates, while overweight credit positioning offers enhanced yield and an unhedged international bond allocation helps to diversify the sources of risk and return in the portfolio. Equity allocations in the more aggressive or longer-dated asset allocation funds continue to have some strategic, dedicated exposure to emerging markets. Emerging markets are a more volatile asset class and their recent relative underperformance has been a drag on short term performance, but the higher associated risk is well reflected in valuations and the diversification potential that emerging markets offer is compelling. We expect market volatility to increase going forward, but the sophisticated construction of the asset allocation funds, including our use of real estate, should help to smooth the ride for investors.

Current positioning – fixed income Fund Duration Fixed Income Yield Corporate Bonds Federal Bonds Provincial Bonds Mortgages/ MBS Real Return Bonds Foreign Bonds Cash & Other Conservative Profile 6.38 3.15% 33.3% 15.8% 15.5% 17.2% 3.9% 11.8% 3.2% Moderate Profile 6.22 3.21% 34.7% 17.3% 17.5% 0.0% 10.9% 2.9% Balanced Profile 6.15 3.03% 36.3% 19.1% 18.2% 7.5% 1.1% Advanced Profile 6.76 37.0% 22.5% 23.8% 15.0% 1.4% Aggressive Profile –   FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond 7.40 2.91% 28.5% 35.6% 34.0% 1.9% Statistics are based on data as at 9/30/2018 Source: FTSE and fund managers

Current positioning – equity Fund Value-Growth Score Dividend Yield P/E Canadian Equity U.S. Equity EAFE / Other Equity Conservative Profile 103 3.15% 14.7 41.7% 37.1% 21.2% Moderate Profile 109 3.02% 15.1 42.7% 36.8% 20.5% Balanced Profile 148 2.49% 15.7 41.0% 35.5% 23.5% Advanced Profile 163 2.26% 16.0 39.0% 35.1% 25.9% Aggressive Profile 171 2.19% 16.2 38.0% 34.7% 27.3%   Blended Benchmark* 174 2.57% 41.3% 37.6% 21.1% *Blended benchmark is 40% S&P/TSX Composite Index, 60% MSCI World Index (CAD) Statistics are based on data as at 9/30/2018 Source: Morningstar Direct and fund managers

Current positioning – fixed income Fund Duration Fixed Income Yield Corporate Bonds Federal Bonds Provincial Bonds Mortgages/ MBS Real Return Bonds Foreign Bonds Cash & Other Conservative Folio 6.58 3.04% 41.9% 15.0% 15.7% 0.4% 3.9% 18.7% 3.8% Moderate Folio 6.56 3.10% 42.2% 15.9% 17.8% 0.5% 0.0% 19.2% 3.5% Balanced Folio 6.39 3.13% 16.5% 17.2% 19.1% Advanced Folio 6.61 2.88% 37.4% 17.5% 0.6% 20.9% 1.6% Aggressive Folio –   FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond 7.40 2.91% 28.5% 35.6% 34.0% 1.9% Statistics are based on data as at 9/30/2018 Source: FTSE and fund managers

Current positioning – equity Fund Value-Growth Score Dividend Yield P/E Canadian Equity U.S. Equity EAFE / Other Equity Conservative Folio 119 3.07% 14.6 38.4% 31.0% 30.5% Moderate Folio 128 2.97% 14.9 38.1% 30.9% Balanced Folio 155 2.60% 16.4 38.2% 33.8% 28.1% Advanced Folio 156 2.44% 16.1 36.6% 34.4% 29.0% Aggressive Folio 165 2.36% 35.6% 34.8% 29.6%   Blended Benchmark* 174 2.57% 15.7 41.3% 37.6% 21.1% *Blended benchmark is 40% S&P/TSX Composite Index, 60% MSCI World Index (CAD) Statistics are based on data as at 9/30/2018 Source: Morningstar Direct and fund managers

Current positioning – fixed income Fund Duration Fixed Income Yield Corporate Bonds Federal Bonds Provincial Bonds Mortgages/ MBS Real Return Bonds Foreign Bonds Cash & Other Conservative Portfolio 6.36 3.25% 33.8% 13.9% 15.0% 13.8% 3.9% 15.6% 3.2% Moderate Portfolio 6.21 3.29% 34.1% 17.3% 13.3% 0.0% 15.7% 2.9% Balanced Portfolio 6.04 3.13% 36.8% 16.2% 16.8% 14.1% 12.1% 1.2% Advanced Portfolio 6.17 3.09% 32.4% 18.0% 17.5% 11.9% 2.6% Aggressive Portfolio –   FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond 7.40 2.91% 28.5% 35.6% 34.0% 1.9% Statistics are based on data as at 9/30/2018 Source: FTSE and fund managers

Current positioning – equity Fund Value-Growth Score Dividend Yield P/E Canadian Equity U.S. Equity EAFE / Other Equity Conservative Portfolio 111 2.99% 15.0 38.7% 39.8% 21.5% Moderate Portfolio 116 2.94% 15.2 38.4% 39.1% 22.5% Balanced Portfolio 147 2.38% 15.5 36.4% 37.1% 26.5% Advanced Portfolio 159 2.33% 15.4 35.1% 37.9% 27.0% Aggressive Portfolio 170 2.25% 15.7 37.4% 27.5%   Blended Benchmark* 174 2.57% 41.3% 37.6% 21.1% *Blended benchmark is 40% S&P/TSX Composite Index, 60% MSCI World Index (CAD) Statistics are based on data as at 9/30/2018 Source: Morningstar Direct and fund managers

Current positioning – fixed income Fund Duration Fixed Income Yield Corporate Bonds Federal Bonds Provincial Bonds Real Return Bonds Foreign Bonds Cash & Other Conservative Allocation 6.63 2.95% 34.9% 22.8% 19.1% 3.9% 15.5% 4.8% Moderate Allocation 6.64 3.03% 37.6% 23.4% 21.3% 0.0% 14.0% 4.5% Balanced Allocation 6.75 2.84% 39.6% 21.0% 13.4% 2.7% Advanced Allocation 7.11 2.85% 39.3% 21.1% 14.6% 3.3% Aggressive Allocation   FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond 7.40 2.91% 28.5% 35.6% 34.0% 1.9% Statistics are based on data as at 9/30/2018 Source: FTSE and fund managers

Current positioning – equity Fund Value-Growth Score Dividend Yield P/E Canadian Equity U.S. Equity EAFE / Other Equity Conservative Allocation 100 3.17% 14.6 42.1% 42.3% 15.7% Moderate Allocation 119 2.97% 15.2 42.2% 40.4% 17.4% Balanced Allocation 154 2.36% 16.4 40.2% 19.6% Advanced Allocation 167 2.20% 16.7 37.0% 38.7% 24.3% Aggressive Allocation 174 2.12% 16.8 35.8% 39.5% 24.6%   Blended Benchmark* 2.57% 15.7 41.3% 37.6% 21.1% *Blended benchmark is 40% S&P/TSX Composite Index, 60% MSCI World Index (CAD) Statistics are based on data as at 9/30/2018 Source: Morningstar Direct and fund managers

Portfolio Solutions Group Target weights

Current target weights – LL Profile Underlying Fund Conservative Moderate Balanced Advanced Aggressive Core Bond (Portico) 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 9.0%   Core Plus Bond (Portico) 12.0% 8.0% Mortgage (Portico) 15.0% Corporate Bond (Portico) 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% Long Term Bond (Portico) Real Return Bond (Portico) Unconstrained Fixed Inc (Mackenzie) 6.0% 4.0% International Bond (Brandywine) Dividend (GWLIM) 3.8% Canadian All Cap Value (Mackenzie) 1.2% 4.1% Canadian Equity (London Capital) 4.3% 7.5% 7.6% Canadian Equity (CI/Synergy) 1.0% 1.4% Canadian Equity (Fidelity) 1.1% 5.5% All Canadian Equity (CI/Cambridge) 2.0% Mid Cap Canada (GWLIM) Canadian Resource (Mackenzie) 6.5% Foreign Equity (Mackenzie/Ivy) 4.5% Global Equity (Putnam) Global Small Cap Growth (Mackenzie) Global Infrastructure (London Capital) U.S. Dividend (GWLIM) 2.9% U.S. Value (London Capital) 2.8% 4.8% 9.5% 10.0% American Growth (AGF) 3.5% 8.8% International Equity (Setanta) 5.4% International Opportunity (JPMorgan) 2.7% 3.1% 7.4% Emerging Markets (Putnam) 4.9% Real Estate (GWLRA) Source: GLC │As at September 30, 2018

Current target weights – GWL Portfolio Underlying Fund Conservative Moderate Balanced Advanced Aggressive Canadian Bond (Portico) 17.0% 15.0% 13.0% 14.0% Core Bond (Portico) 12.0% 7.0%   Bond (Mackenzie) 6.0% Commercial Mortgage (Portico) 10.0% 3.0% Corporate Bond (Portico) 4.0% Long Term Bond (Portico) International Bond (Brandywine) Unconstrained Fixed Income (Mackenzie) Real Return Bond (Portico) Dividend (GWLIM) 3.5% 5.0% Canadian Value (CI/Harbour) 5.5% Canadian Value (FGP) 1.1% 1.3% 2.0% Canadian Equity (GWLIM) 4.5% 9.0% Canadian Equity (Laketon) 6.5% Mid Cap Canada (GWLIM) Foreign Equity (Mackenzie/Ivy) 7.7% Global Equity (Setanta) 3.4% Global Value (Mackenzie/Cundill) 8.0% Global Small Cap Growth (Mackenzie) Global Infrastructure Equity (London Capital) U.S. Value (London Capital) 2.5% American Growth (AGF) International Opportunity (JPMorgan) 7.5% International Equity (Setanta) Emerging Markets (Putnam) Real Estate (GWLRA) Statistics are based on fund data as at 9/30/2018, target weights as at 10/31/2018

Current target weights – CL Allocation Underlying Fund Conservative Moderate Balanced Advanced Aggressive Core Plus Bond (Portico) 26.0% 25.5% 22.5% 17.0%   Core Bond (Portico) 8.0% 6.0% Government Bond (Portico) 12.0% 7.5% 3.0% Long Term Bond (Portico) Real Return Bond (Portico) Corporate Bond (Portico) 9.0% International Bond (CLI) 5.5% Unconstrained Fixed Inc (Mackenzie) 4.0% Enhanced Dividend (Laketon) 3.5% 4.5% 7.0% 2.5% Canadian Equity Value (Laketon) Canadian Equity (London Capital) 1.0% Canadian Equity (Laketon) Canadian Equity (Bissett) 1.1% 4.3% Fidelity True North® Mid Cap Canada (GWLIM) 5.0% Canadian Resource (Mackenzie) 6.5% Global Equity (Setanta) 8.5% Global Equity (Invesco) 4.9% Global Growth (Mackenzie) Global Small Cap Growth (Mackenzie) Global Infrastructure (London Capital) U.S. Value (London Capital) 4.2% 10.0% American Growth (AGF) 11.0% International Equity (Templeton) International Equity (CI/Altrinsic) Emerging Markets (Putnam) Real Estate (GWLRA) Source: GLC │As at September 30, 2018

Current target weights – Quadrus Folio Underlying Fund Conservative Moderate Balanced Advanced Aggressive Core Plus Bond (Portico) 22.0% 20.0% 17.0% 8.0%   Bond (Mackenzie) 20.5% 19.0% 13.0% 9.0% Corporate Bond (Portico) 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% Long Term Bond (Portico) International Bond (CLI) 7.5% 6.5% 4.0% Unconstrained Fixed Income (Mackenzie) 6.0% Short Term Bond (Portico) 2.5% Real Return Bond (Portico) Dividend (GWLIM) 3.5% 5.5% Canadian Value (FGP) Canadian All Cap Value (Mackenzie) 4.5% Canadian Growth (GWLIM) 12.0% Canadian Equity (Laketon) Canadian Resource (Mackenzie) Global Dividend (Setanta) Global Infrastructure Equity (London Capital) Global Growth (Mackenzie) Global Small Cap Growth (Mackenzie) U.S. Value (Putnam) 8.5% 9.5% U.S. All Cap Growth (Mackenzie) Foreign Equity (Mackenzie/Ivy) International Core Equity (Putnam) 11.0% Emerging Markets Opportunities (Mackenzie)

Current target weights – Quadrus Folio Underlying Fund Diversified Fixed Income Core Plus Bond (Portico) 30.0% Core Bond (Portico) 26.0% Corporate Bond (Portico) 10.0% Long Term Bond (Portico) 6.0% Unconstrained Fixed Income (Mackenzie) Real Return Bond (Portico) 3.0% Short Term Bond (Portico) International Bond (CLI) 9.0% Source: GLC │As at September 30, 2018

Portfolio Solutions Group Performance

London Life Profile funds Dampens volatility 10-year Gross Returns (%) 30 Sep 18 10-year Standard Deviations (%) 30 Sep 18 Fund Fund Benchmark Benchmark Source: Morningstar Direct, SFFS │ Figures are annualized

London Life Profile funds Protects on the downside Outperformance versus Benchmark Capture Ratio Beta Up Markets Down Markets Upside Downside Conservative 0.79 32% 86% 90% 67% Moderate 0.80 31% 88% 89% 71% Balanced 0.85 41% 79% 94% Advanced 0.89 43% 62% 96% Aggressive 0.91 58% 95% 87% Source: Morningstar Direct, SFFS │ 10-year data for the period ended 9/30/2018, monthly periods

GWL Portfolio funds Dampens volatility 10-year Gross Returns (%) 30 Sep 18 10-year Standard Deviations (%) 30 Sep 18 Fund Fund Benchmark Benchmark Source: Morningstar Direct, SFFS │ Figures are annualized

Protects on the downside Outperformance versus Benchmark GWL Portfolio funds Protects on the downside Outperformance versus Benchmark Capture Ratio Beta Up Markets Down Markets Upside Downside Conservative 0.79 33% 81% 92% 62% Moderate 0.76 82% 89% 58% Balanced 43% 76% 77% Advanced 0.83 45% 61% 94% 83% Aggressive 0.85 46% 86% Source: Morningstar Direct, SFFS │ 10-year data for the period ended 9/30/2018, monthly periods

Canada Life Allocation funds Dampens volatility 10-year Gross Returns (%) 30 Sep 18 10-year Standard Deviations (%) 30 Sep 18 Fund Fund Benchmark Benchmark Source: Morningstar Direct, SFFS │ Figures are annualized

Canada Life Allocation funds Protects on the downside Outperformance versus Benchmark Capture Ratio Beta Up Markets Down Markets Upside Downside Conservative 0.75 33% 83% 88% 65% Moderate 0.80 38% 79% 91% 70% Balanced 0.83 44% 95% 73% Advanced 0.92 46% 76% 98% 86% Aggressive 0.91 41% 96% Source: Morningstar Direct, SFFS │ 10-year data for the period ended 9/30/2018, monthly periods

Quadrus Folio funds 10-year Gross Returns (%) 30 Sep 18 10-year Standard Deviations (%) 30 Sep 18 Fund Fund Benchmark Benchmark Source: Morningstar Direct, SFFS │ Figures are annualized

Outperformance versus Benchmark Quadrus Folio funds Outperformance versus Benchmark Capture Ratio Beta Up Markets Down Markets Upside Downside Conservative 0.93 50% 72% 98% 86% Moderate 0.95 49% 68% 92% Balanced 0.99 53% 56% 100% 97% Advanced 1.00 99% Aggressive Source: Morningstar Direct, SFFS │ 10-year data for the period ended 9/30/2018, monthly periods

Quadrus Diversified Fixed Income Folio Asset mix as at September 30, 2018 CORE PLUS BOND (PORTICO) CORE BOND (PORTICO) CORPORATE BOND (PORTICO) UNCONSTRAINED FIXED INCOME (MACKENZIE) INTERNATIONAL BOND (CLI) LONG TERM BOND (PORTICO) SHORT TERM BOND (PORTICO) REAL RETURN BOND (PORTICO) Source information and disclaimer can be found on the last page. Portfolio attributes reflect the portfolio strategy used by the Quadrus fund shelf.

LL Diversified Fixed Income Asset mix as at September 30, 2018 CORE PLUS BOND (PORTICO) CORE BOND (PORTICO) MORTGAGE (PORTICO) CORPORATE BOND (PORTICO) INTERNATIONAL BOND (BRANDYWINE) UNCONSTRAINED FIXED INCOME (MACKENZIE) LONG TERM BOND (PORTICO) REAL RETURN BOND (PORTICO) SHORT TERM BOND (PORTICO) Source information and disclaimer can be found on the last page. Portfolio attributes reflect the portfolio strategy used by the London Life fund shelf.

GWL Diversified Fixed Income Asset mix as at September 30, 2018 CANADIAN BOND (PORTICO) CORE BOND (PORTICO) COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE (PORTICO) INTERNATIONAL BOND (BRANDYWINE) BOND (MACKENZIE) UNCONSTRAINED FIXED INCOME (MACKENZIE) CORPORATE BOND (PORTICO) LONG TERM BOND (PORTICO) REAL RETURN BOND (PORTICO) SHORT TERM BOND (PORTICO) Source information and disclaimer can be found on the last page. Portfolio attributes reflect the portfolio strategy used by the Great-West Life fund shelf.

Where to find more information Check out our website: https://www.glc-amgroup.com/ Follow us on social media: LinkedIn: GLC LinkedIn page Twitter: @GLCasset Subscribe to our podcasts by following GLC Asset Management: Apple iTunes Google Play Music Spotify Watch our video: An introduction to Portfolio Solutions Group