Trendcasting.

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Presentation transcript:

Trendcasting

How It Can Help The Forecast Trendcasting What It Is, How It Can Help The Forecast

It Is Like Where’s Waldo For Meteorologists And Weather Watchers

Fun And Frustrating

Trendcasting: Looking For Something That Stands Out

Then See If It Applies To The Forecast Find The Trend Then See If It Applies To The Forecast

I Love Writing About Trends brucesussman.com

Weekend Days Were Warmest Summer 2011 Trend Weekend Days Were Warmest

Weekend Days Were Warmest Summer 2011 Trend Weekend Days Were Warmest

How It Helped: Each weekend models split on warm & cool, I could trust the warm solution because of the trend

Spring 2011 Trend

Only 1 Warm & Sunny Day Per Week Spring 2011 Trend Only 1 Warm & Sunny Day Per Week

Trend Start: April Fool’s Day 2011 Spring 2011 Trend Trend Start: April Fool’s Day 2011

Still Going Most Of April… Spring 2011 Trend Still Going Most Of April…

Trend Finally Ends: Late May Spring 2011 Trend Trend Finally Ends: Late May

How It Helped: I rarely was fooled by the models lies that a “warm stretch” was finally going to happen

My wife and I booked a trip to Phoenix How It Helped: I rarely was fooled by the models lies that a “warm stretch” was finally going to happen My wife and I booked a trip to Phoenix

Rainy Season Trend 2012 “The 50-50 Year”

Rainy Season Trend 2012 “The 50-50 Year”

Rainy Season Trend 2012 Trend Start: December

February: Wetter 2nd Half Of Month Rainy Season Trend 2012 February: Wetter 2nd Half Of Month

Trend Went Thru March Helped My Forecast: I could be more confident that ‘wet’ or ‘dry' extended forecast would be right

Trend Went Thru March My wife and I booked a trip to Phoenix Helped My Forecast: I could be more confident that ‘wet’ or ‘dry' extended forecast would be right My wife and I booked a trip to Phoenix

Spring Trend 2014 “Stormy Sundays”

80% of t-storms occurred on Sundays Spring Trend 2014 80% of t-storms occurred on Sundays during April and May

80% of t-storms occurred on Sundays Spring Trend 2014 80% of t-storms occurred on Sundays during April and May How It Helped: It didn't

Trendcasting Can Be Like… Try To Spot The Trends Trendcasting Can Be Like…

For Meteorologists And Weather Watchers Where’s Waldo? For Meteorologists And Weather Watchers

Let me know what you find: bruce@brucesussman.com / @forecastupdates