2013 Crop Market Outlook OK State Extension Webcast Apr. 15, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 97.3 Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 163.6 Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 14,642 Beg. Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 757 Imports 8 28 29 125 25 Total Supply 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,894 15,424 Feed & Residual 5,125 4,795 4,545 4,400 5,400 Ethanol 4,591 5,019 5,011 4,550 4,675 Food, Seed, & Other 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,387 1,435 Exports 1,980 1,834 1,543 800 1,500 Total Use 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,137 13,010 Ending Stocks 2,414 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.90 4.80 Source: USDA-WAOB, for 2009-12 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 77.1 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.6 44.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,015 3,387 Beg. Stocks 138 151 215 169 125 Imports 15 14 16 20 Total Supply 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,204 3,527 Crush 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,635 1,660 Seed & Residual 110 130 90 95 135 Exports 1,499 1,501 1,362 1,350 1,500 Total Use 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,080 3,295 Ending Stocks 232 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.30 10.50 Source: USDA-WAOB, for 2009-12 3 3

Trade Expectations = 5 billion bushels March 1 Corn Stocks Trade Expectations = 5 billion bushels

Trade Expectations = 935 million bushels March 1 Soy Stocks Trade Expectations = 935 million bushels

Corn Intended Acreage Top: 2013 intended acres Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: 1,000 acres

Soybean Intended Acreage Top: 2013 intended acres Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: 1,000 acres

Total Intended Acreage Top: 2013 intended acres Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: 1,000 acres

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Advance Corn Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Advance Soybean Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Ethanol Stocks

Current Corn Futures 5.11 5.08 Source: CME Group, 4/11/2013

Current Soybean Futures 11.67 11.57 Source: CME Group, 4/11/2013

Corn Prices vs. Costs

Soy Prices vs. Costs

3 Month Outlook - Precip

3 Month Outlook - Temps

Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Soil moisture issues Wetter, but warmer, spring Corn demand has yet to rebound (but ethanol is starting to) Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 Futures (4/11/13) Corn $6.90 $5.11 Soybeans $14.30 $11.67

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/