SLEPS: Short-range limited-area ensemble prediction system

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no LAMEPS – Limited area ensemble forecasting in Norway, using targeted EPS Marit Helene Jensen, Inger-Lise Frogner,
Advertisements

1 The COSMO-LEPS ECMWF since June 2004 d-1 d d+5 d+1d+2 d+4d+3 middle EPS youngest EPS clustering period Cluster Analysis and RM identification.
The COSMO-LEPS system at ECMWF
COSMO-SREPS COSMO Priority Project C. Marsigli, A. Montani and T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy.
C ontacts: Marit Helene Jensen, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P.O.Box 43 Blindern, N-0313 OSLO, NORWAY. HIRLAM at met.no.
MAP D-PHASE Forecast Demonstration Project Instrument of WWRP Last phase of MAP Mathias Rotach, MeteoSwiss.
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Improving COSMO-LEPS forecasts of extreme events with.
Ensemble activities in COSMO C. Marsigli, A. Montani, T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIM - HydroMeteorological Service of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy.
14th ALADIN Workshop, Innsbruck 1-4 June 2004 First LAMEPS experiments at the Hungarian Meteorological Service Edit Hágel and Gabriella Szépszó Hungarian.
LAMEPS Development and Plan of ALADIN-LACE Yong Wang et al. Speaker: Harald Seidl ZAMG, Austria Thanks: Météo France, LACE, NCEP.
Performance of the MOGREPS Regional Ensemble
SRNWP workshop - Bologne Short range ensemble forecasting at Météo-France status and plans J. Nicolau, Météo-France.
SLEPS First Results from SLEPS A. Walser, M. Arpagaus, C. Appenzeller, J. Quiby MeteoSwiss.
The impact of moist singular vectors and ensemble size on predicted storm tracks for the winter storms Lothar and Martin A. Walser 1) M. Arpagaus 1) M.
ENSEMBLES General Assembly Santander, Spain, 23 October 2008 RT5: Evaluation Objective:comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the.
How can LAMEPS * help you to make a better forecast for extreme weather Henrik Feddersen, DMI * LAMEPS =Limited-Area Model Ensemble Prediction.
A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system: recent developments and plans 2nd Workshop on Short-Range EPS, Bologna, 7-8 April 2005 The COSMO-LEPS system: recent.
Data assimilation and observing systems strategies Pierre Gauthier Data Assimilation and Satellite Meteorology Division Meteorological Service of Canada.
WORKSHOP ON SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION USING LIMITED-AREA MODELS Instituto National de Meteorologia, Madrid, 3-4 October 2002 Limited-Area Ensemble.
2nd SRNWP Workshop on Short Range EPS 7-8 April 2005, Bologna Aula Prodi Piazza San Giovanni in Monte.
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014 Development of a LAM-EPS system for Sochi Winter Olympics Andrea Montani C. Marsigli, T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIMC.
Ensemble Forecasting and You The very basics Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA
Large-scale surface wind extremes in the Mediterranean Shira Raveh-Rubin and Heini Wernli Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IACETH), ETH Zurich.
COSMO WG4 Actvities Concentrated mainly on COSMO LEPS  presentation by Andrea Montani The rest of the activities have been absorbed into the advanced.
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Cost Efficient Use of COSMO-LEPS Reforecasts Felix Fundel,
KIT – University of the State of Baden-Württemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Variability in forecasts of the track.
Interoperability at INM Experience with the SREPS system J. A. García-Moya NWP – Spanish Met Service INM SRNWP Interoperability Workshop ECMWF –
Plans for Short-Range Ensemble Forecast at INM José A. García-Moya SMNT – INM Workshop on Short Range Ensemble Forecast Madrid, October,
COSMO WG4 activities Oct Sept Pierre Eckert MétéoSuisse WG4 coordinator Interpretation and applications.
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss WG 4 activities.
GEO - Weather Ocean Water Proposed Weather SBA and cross-linking work packages.
DIAMET meeting 7 th-8th March 2011 “New tools for the evaluation of convective scale ensemble systems” Seonaid Dey Supervisors: Bob Plant, Nigel Roberts.
Scientific Advisory Committee Meeting, November 25-26, 2002 Dr. Daniela Jacob Regional climate modelling Daniela Jacob.
DIAMET meeting 7 th-8th March 2011 “New tools for the evaluation of convective scale ensemble systems” Seonaid Dey Supervisors: Bob Plant, Nigel Roberts.
A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system. Recent developments and plans for the COSMO-LEPS system Andrea Montani, C. Marsigli, T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIMC HydroMeteoClimate.
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss A more reliable COSMO-LEPS F. Fundel, A. Walser, M. A.
Langen, September 2003 COSMO-LEPS objective verification Chiara Marsigli, Francesco Boccanera, Andrea Montani, Fabrizio Nerozzi, Tiziana Paccagnella.
ECMWF Training course 26/4/2006 DRD meeting, 2 July 2004 Frederic Vitart 1 Predictability on the Monthly Timescale Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK.
PP CONSENS Merging COSMO-LEPS and COSMO- SREPS for the short-range Chiara Marsigli, Tiziana Paccagnella, Andrea Montani ARPA-SIMC, Bologna, Italy.
Philippe Steiner, MeteoSwiss COSMO General Meeting September 22th, 2005 Plans of MeteoSwiss for next year.
Status of the NWP-System & based on COSMO managed by ARPA-SIM COSMO I77 kmBCs from IFSNudgingCINECA COSMO I22.8 kmBCs from COSMO I7 Interpolated from COSMO.
A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS suite at ECMWF: present status and developments COSMO meeting, Zurich, September 2005 The COSMO-LEPS suite at ECMWF: present.
Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDI Bundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz Ensemble activites and plans at MeteoSwiss André Walser.
Cloud, radiation, and precipitation changes with dynamic regime: An observational analysis and model evaluation study PI: George Tselioudis Co-PI: Chris.
1Deutscher WetterdienstMärz 2005 April 2005: 19 NWS/ 21 forecast products (1) AustriaALADIN-LACE (9.6 km) ARPEGE (2) Czech Repub ALADIN-LACE (9 km) ARPEGE.
Actions & Activities Report PP8 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany 2.1Compilation of Meteorological Observations, 2.2Analysis of.
Lothar (T+42 hours) Figure 4.
Xuexing Qiu and Fuqing Dec. 2014
Tropical Convection and MJO
LEPS VERIFICATION ON MAP CASES
André Walser MeteoSwiss, Zurich
The impact of moist singular vectors and ensemble size on predicted storm tracks for the winter storms Lothar and Martin A. Walser1) M. Arpagaus1) M. Leutbecher2)
Middle-Range Ensemble Forecast at CPTEC/INPE - Current Activities
A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system.
Daniel Leuenberger1, Christian Keil2 and George Craig2
Sub-seasonal prediction at ECMWF
Le Duc National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecast
COSMO-DE-EPS Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt, Michael Buchhold,
Verification of COSMO-LEPS and coupling with a hydrologic model
The COSMO-LEPS cloud problem over the Alpine region
Preliminary test for the development of a 2.8km ensemble over Italy
Statistical interpretation of ECMWF EPS
2nd Workshop on Short Range EPS 7th–8th April 2005, Bologna
42h forecast HIRLAM 50km 24h accumulated precipitation.
SRNWP-PEPS COSMO General Meeting September 2005
2nd SRNWP Workshop on Short Range Ensemble 7-8 April 2005 Bologna
Poster Session: Numerical Weather Prediction at MeteoSwiss
PREVIEW in some words (PREVention, Information and Early Warning)
NWP activities in Austria in 2006/2007 Y. Wang
The Impact of Moist Singular Vectors and Horizontal Resolution on Short-Range Limited-Area Ensemble Forecasts for Extreme Weather Events A. Walser1) M.
Presentation transcript:

SLEPS: Short-range limited-area ensemble prediction system André Walser, Marco Arpagaus, Jean Quiby, Christof Appenzeller MeteoSwiss

SLEPS: Short-range adaptation of LEPS

Global ECMWF EPS ensembles with moist singular vectors SLEPS: current setup 50+1 members 5 representative members (RMs) 5 Lokal Modell (limited-area) integrations nested into 5 RMs SLEPS: Short-range limited-area Ensemble Prediction System 5 clusters Hierarchical Cluster Analysis area: Europe fields: 4 variables (U,V,Q,Z) at 3 levels (500, 700, 850) for 3 time-steps (24h, 48h, 72h) number of clusters: fixed to 5 Representative Member Selection one per cluster: member nearest (3D) to the mean of its own cluster AND most distant to the other clusters’ means Global ECMWF EPS ensembles with moist singular vectors

SLEPS: current setup (2) 10 km mesh-size horizontally, 32 vertical levels.

SLEPS: Lothar (26.12.99), wind gusts With moist SVs With dry SVs

SLEPS: Lothar, wind gusts With moist SVs With dry SVs

SLEPS: Martin (27.12.1999), wind gusts With moist SVs With dry SVs

SLEPS: Martin, wind gusts With moist SVs With dry SVs

Plans and questions Simulation of selected extreme events (mainly heavy precipitation cases) in the Alpine region. Is dynamical (SLEPS/LEPS) or statistical (neural network) down-scaling of the ECMWF EPS information superior? Are the down-scaling methods more skilful than the ECMWF EPS itself? Inter-comparison of SLEPS/LEPS dedicated neural network EFI → Objective verification

Feedback: Privacy Policy Feedback
Do Not Sell My Personal Information
About project: SlidePlayer Terms of Service

© 2025 SlidePlayer.com. Inc. All rights reserved.