Tank Car NAR Data Breakdowns 2018 1st 9 Months US Only Source of data: PHMSA on-line NAR data Todd Treichel ttreichel@aar.org All data in these slides are for tank car non-accident releases of hazmat/dangerous goods only. They are compiled for the AAR Tank Car Committee and the North American NAR Reduction Task Force, whose focus is also restricted to tank cars at present. Tank cars experience the large majority of NARs compared to other packages, and also represent a larger hazard because of the quantities of lading in the tanks (though NARs almost always involve a very small loss compared to tank capacity). 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Sources for the NAR Data For this presentation, the sole source for incidents is PHMSA’s 5800.1-based data Canadian Class 1s also are voluntarily providing data on incidents in Canada, but we haven’t included that for 2018 yet Railroads are voluntarily adding BOE Cause Codes to their 5800.1 reports More precision than PHMSA Cause Codes The North American NAR Reduction Task Force has scope covering all of North America, so data from both US and Canada are included. BOE=Bureau of Explosives. BOE uses its own cause codes because they offer a somewhat finer-grained breakdown. 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Further Notes on NAR Data Some gaps Cause Codes sometimes missing Canadian short line incidents (and mainlines for 2018 at the moment) Did not attempt to include Mexican incidents 2017-2018 data do include US short line incidents, while previous years’ presentations lacked many of those – there are some notations on the trend graphs for comparability with previous years The graphs shown here are preliminary because there has not been a full review of the various counts The North American NAR Reduction Task Force has scope covering all of North America, so data from both US and Canada are included. BOE=Bureau of Explosives. BOE uses its own cause codes because they offer a somewhat finer-grained breakdown. 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Further Notes on NAR Data 2018 9-month dataset required clean-up One major carrier shows only 3 NARs On the other hand, 44 records show N/A as the carrier Cause codes entered with variable format The 44 N/As prevent a good understanding of how many records are from short lines 182 out of 263 (69%) have BOE Cause Codes assigned in the proper field Many of these have the codes on 5800, but not in database 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Tank Cars with NARs by Year US & Canada 63% reduction since 1996 Going forward, will now include all US short lines 32% reduction since 2007 2018 1st 9 mos. US only: 263 * The Canadian NAR reduction program was expanded to the US as well in 1996. Note that this curve is not normalized by shipment total. A change in the data source makes the 2018 total to date hard to compare to previous years, because Canadian data have not been added yet, but US short lines have been included more reliably. 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

US Tank Car NARs by Class of Railroad 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Top Commodities for NARs Tank Car NARs in 2018 1st 9 Months US Only The Task Force looks first at causes and commodities with the highest numbers of NARs, because that’s where the potential for big improvements lies. Ten years ago, AA and LPG were the leaders, but they have been reduced drastically. Crude oil and Alcohols NOS have both dropped back, and crude oil is a notable success story. Also of interest: Pet. Crude 3 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Alcohols NOS Trend * 2018 data are 9 months & US only 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Anhydrous Ammonia Trend * 2018 data are 9 months & US only 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Crude Oil Trend * 2018 data are 9 months & US only 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

LPG Trend * 2018 data are 9 months & US only 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Tank Car NARs per 1,000 Originations Selected Commodities 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Tank Car NARs per 1,000 Originations Selected Commodities HCl Excluded Hydrochloric acid is set aside on this graph, strictly to make it easier to see the trends in the rest of the curves that are crowded into the bottom of the graph on the previous slide. 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Components Involved in NARs Non-pressure Cars 2018 1st 9 Months, US Only “Manway” includes all of the different manway systems found on various non-pressure cars, but principally hinged and bolted and acid car arrangements. “Other” generally includes vandalism and causes we don’t have a code for yet, such as swing bolts fouling manway covers so they don’t close, loss of vacuum between tanks on a DOT-113 car (not included in this graph), etc. Note: 52 of 190 records had no cause code assigned 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Top Specific Causes for Non-pressure Cars 2018 1st 9 Months, US Only “Manway” includes all of the different manway systems found on various non-pressure cars, but principally hinged and bolted and acid car arrangements. “Other” generally includes vandalism and causes we don’t have a code for yet, such as swing bolts fouling manway covers so they don’t close, loss of vacuum between tanks on a DOT-113 car (not included in this graph), etc. Note: 52 of 190 records had no cause code assigned 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Components Involved in NARs Pressure Cars 2018 1st 9 Months, US Only “Manway” includes all of the different manway systems found on various non-pressure cars, but principally hinged and bolted and acid car arrangements. “Other” generally includes vandalism and causes we don’t have a code for yet, such as swing bolts fouling manway covers so they don’t close, loss of vacuum between tanks on a DOT-113 car (not included in this graph), etc. Note: 19 of 56 records had no cause code assigned 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Top Specific Causes for Pressure Cars 2018 1st 9 Months, US Only “Manway” includes all of the different manway systems found on various non-pressure cars, but principally hinged and bolted and acid car arrangements. “Other” generally includes vandalism and causes we don’t have a code for yet, such as swing bolts fouling manway covers so they don’t close, loss of vacuum between tanks on a DOT-113 car (not included in this graph), etc. Note: 19 of 56 records had no cause code assigned 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Data, Resources, Assistance www.aar.org/nar Data, Resources, Assistance 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Top Commodities for NARs 2017 for Comparison - US & Canada “Manway” includes all of the different manway systems found on various non-pressure cars, but principally hinged and bolted and acid car arrangements. “Other” generally includes vandalism and causes we don’t have a code for yet, such as swing bolts fouling manway covers so they don’t close, loss of vacuum between tanks on a DOT-113 car (not included in this graph), etc. Also of interest: Pet. Crude 3 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Components Involved in NARs Non-pressure Cars 2017 for Comparison – US & Canada “Manway” includes all of the different manway systems found on various non-pressure cars, but principally hinged and bolted and acid car arrangements. “Other” generally includes vandalism and causes we don’t have a code for yet, such as swing bolts fouling manway covers so they don’t close, loss of vacuum between tanks on a DOT-113 car (not included in this graph), etc. 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Top Specific Causes for Non-pressure Cars 2017 for Comparison – US & Canada “Manway” includes all of the different manway systems found on various non-pressure cars, but principally hinged and bolted and acid car arrangements. “Other” generally includes vandalism and causes we don’t have a code for yet, such as swing bolts fouling manway covers so they don’t close, loss of vacuum between tanks on a DOT-113 car (not included in this graph), etc. 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Components Involved in NARs Pressure Cars 2017 for Comparison – US & Canada “Manway” includes all of the different manway systems found on various non-pressure cars, but principally hinged and bolted and acid car arrangements. “Other” generally includes vandalism and causes we don’t have a code for yet, such as swing bolts fouling manway covers so they don’t close, loss of vacuum between tanks on a DOT-113 car (not included in this graph), etc. 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY

Top Specific Causes for Pressure Cars 2017 for Comparison – US & Canada “Manway” includes all of the different manway systems found on various non-pressure cars, but principally hinged and bolted and acid car arrangements. “Other” generally includes vandalism and causes we don’t have a code for yet, such as swing bolts fouling manway covers so they don’t close, loss of vacuum between tanks on a DOT-113 car (not included in this graph), etc. 10/17/18 PRELIMINARY