Usefulness of microsimulation to translate valve performance into patient outcome: Patient prognosis after aortic valve replacement with the Carpentier–Edwards.

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Presentation transcript:

Usefulness of microsimulation to translate valve performance into patient outcome: Patient prognosis after aortic valve replacement with the Carpentier–Edwards supra- annular valve Martijn W.A. van Geldorp, MD, W.R. Eric Jamieson, MD, A. Pieter Kappetein, MD, PhD, John P.A. Puvimanasinghe, MD, PhD, Marinus J.C. Eijkemans, PhD, Gary L. Grunkemeier, PhD, Johanna J.M. Takkenberg, MD, PhD, Ad J.J.C. Bogers, MD, PhD The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery Volume 134, Issue 3, Pages 702-709.e1 (September 2007) DOI: 10.1016/j.jtcvs.2007.03.051 Copyright © 2007 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Cumulative incidence of reoperation and cumulative risk (equivalent of “1 minus freedom from reoperation”) of all-cause reoperation and reoperation caused by structural valve deterioration (SVD) for patients in the Carpentier–Edwards supra-annular valve (CE-SAV) dataset. The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2007 134, 702-709.e1DOI: (10.1016/j.jtcvs.2007.03.051) Copyright © 2007 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 General structure of the microsimulation model. AVR, Aortic valve replacement. The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2007 134, 702-709.e1DOI: (10.1016/j.jtcvs.2007.03.051) Copyright © 2007 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Life expectancy (LE), event-free life expectancy (EFLE), and reoperation-free life expectancy (RFLE) for men at different ages of valve implantation. The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2007 134, 702-709.e1DOI: (10.1016/j.jtcvs.2007.03.051) Copyright © 2007 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery Terms and Conditions

Figure E1 External validation: microsimulation-calculated survival compared with observed survival (Portland dataset). The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2007 134, 702-709.e1DOI: (10.1016/j.jtcvs.2007.03.051) Copyright © 2007 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery Terms and Conditions