Determined to reach the target: the EC’s progress Bali, 10 December 2007 Dr. Erasmia Kitou DG ENV Unit C.1 ‘Climate strategy, International Negotiation and Monitoring of EU Action’

Determined to reach the target

EU-15 Kyoto target can be reached current projections from Member States of their greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 indicate that the EU-15 is capable of meeting its Kyoto target under the following conditions: • Full delivery of emission reductions from existing domestic policies and measures, already implemented by Member States. • Rapid adoption and implementation of additional policies and measures currently under discussion at European and national levels. • Accounting of CO2 removals from land use, land-use change and forestry. • Use of Kyoto mechanisms to full extent as currently being implemented and planned by Member States. • Substantial over-achievement by some Member States of their individual target to cover the gap left by the Member States which currently project that they will not achieve their target. • Achievement during the whole 5-year commitment period, which spans from 2008 until 2012 of the emission reductions currently planned for 2010 are in fact. According to national projections, existing domestic policies and measures, already implemented by EU-15 Member States, will deliver by 2010 a reduction of 4.0 % relative to base-year levels. If adopted and fully implemented on time, the additional domestic policies and measures currently under discussion could bring a further reduction of 4 % relative to base-year. The use of Kyoto mechanisms, currently foreseen by ten countries, would help to reduce emissions by a further 2.5 %. The effect of carbon sink activities is estimated to bring an additional 0.8 % reduction. If all the projected reductions from domestic policies and measures, carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms were achieved, the EU-15 could reach an emission level 11.4 % lower than base-year emissions, therefore over-achieving its -8% target by 3.4 points. However this relies on the condition that all Member States achieve the full emissions reductions they project during the whole commitment period. In particular, some Member States will have to exceed substantially their individual target to cover the gap left by the Member States which currently project that they will not achieve their own target. In addition, an estimate of the overall effect of the EU emissions trading scheme based on a comparison between verified emissions in 2005 and 2006, and the European Commission’s decisions on proposed national allocation plans for the period 2008-2012, indicates that a further reduction of 1 to 2 % from base-year emissions could be achieved in addition to emission reductions already projected by EU-15 Member States.

New EU MS project to be on track Nine new Member States project that they will meet or even over-comply with their Kyoto targets by 2010 using only existing domestic policies and measures. Slovenia projects that it will meet its Kyoto target through adoption and implementation of planned policies and measures, and by using Kyoto Mechanisms and including CO2 removals from land-use change and forestry

Not all EU-15 on track Three Member States (Spain, Italy and Denmark) are not on track based on past trends and project that they will not reach their target, despite the use of carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms, and, in the case of Italy, the implementation of additional domestic policies and measures. Spain and Denmark did not report on time on additional measures which could be taken into account in this analysis. However, both countries announced recently that they were planning to reach their target through future supplementary action. Furthermore, the effect of the recent Commission decisions on the national allocation plans for the period 2008-2012 of the EU emissions trading scheme is not fully accounted for in the present analysis.

Decoupling of emissions from economic growth

Sectoral progress EU-27

Energy/transport: the challenge…

Key EU (domestic) policies and measures to reduce GHG emissions EU CO2 emissions trading scheme Promotion of electricity from renewable energy Promotion of combined heat and power (CHP) Improvements in the energy performance of buildings and energy efficiency in large industrial installations Promotion of the use of energy-efficient appliances Promotion of biofuels in transport Reducing the average carbon dioxide emissions of new passenger cars Energy taxation Recovery of gases from landfills Reduction of fluorinated gases

Preliminary data (2006) EU-15: -2.7% compared to base year

Where we are… and where we want to be

More info on EU climate policy: http://europa. eu