Land Value Capture in Planned New Urban Centres Tianren Yang | Martin Centre for Architectural and Urban Studies Aerial view of existing urban centre in Shanghai (https://www.skyscrapercity.com/)

Emerging Urban Sub-Centres Case Study: Shanghai as a Rapidly Urbanising City 7 new sub-centres in Shanghai - Each one of them has a population of Cambridgeshire or more Poor financial track records Development-induced capitalisation (e.g., land value capture) 2000 2010 1980 1990 Fig. Spread of built-up areas in Shanghai (Data source: CAS)

How to Track the Performance in Sub-centres against Rapid Growth? Location Insufficient understanding of the land market often hampers the LVC. China Land Market: A new source of online data released for administrative uses Individual transaction records Land Use Density Prices Online, instantaneous publication of site- level transactions and allocations are now a legal requirement in China. This means that continuous and timely monitoring of land development data by academic researchers is now feasible land area / land use type grantees date of sale location leasing period / prices Online, instantaneous publication of site-level transactions and allocations are now a legal requirement in China

Site Areas and Prices in Shanghai (2000-2015) Volume Prices Fig. Land transaction by area by percentage. Fig. Land transaction by average price.

Planned Growth and Land Market – An Urban Transect Transaction volume Transaction price You will find the transaction volume (with coloured background) reaches its peak in the urban fringes as well as satellite cities and new towns. Comparatively, the transaction prices (in the line chart) hit the highest point in the city centre, while as circled out here secondary price bumps are hardly to be identified in any sub-centre.

Takeaways and Next Steps Strategic land development vs. market acknowledgement Missed opportunities where long-term value uplift is in fact strong. Promising signs in four satellite cities and one new town which are worth watching. Continuous monitoring of the land market helps to inform planning and investment strategies that support Shanghai’s quest for poly-centricity. A land use-transport model for long-term prognoses of the land value uplifts. Fig. Trend growth in the existing centre. We can then figure out the reasons such as why these sub-peaks have not emerged, and how we can make efforts to stimulate their appearance by public planning strategies. Fig. Introduction of a new employment centre. (adapted from Fujita and Thisse (2013))

Land Value Capture in Planned New Urban Centres Thank you! Tianren Yang ty290@cam.ac.uk