IDENTIFYING THE KEY TRENDS REGARDING THE TRANSPORT CONCEPTS OF THE FUTURE Alkiviadis Tromaras, Efthymis Papadopoulos, Aggelos Aggelakakis Centre for Research and Technology Hellas/Hellenic Institute of Transport ICTTE Belgrade 27th October 2018

Contents Introduction Aim of the work- Methodology Identified transport concepts Conclusions

1. Introduction The EU transport sector plays significant role in ensuring sustainable economic growth. 10 million jobs representing 4.6% GDP Better quality of life Movement of goods, people, services Major challenges include: traffic congestion, oil dependency, greenhouse gas emissions, ageing infrastructure, growing competition from other transport markets To overcome current and future challenges innovative transport solutions Research and innovation (R&I) support The EU transport system is in transitional period New disruptive transport concepts and technologies are emerging

2. Methodology Aim Identify key trends regarding the transport concepts of the future Indicate how people and goods will be transported in the future based on literature Passenger Freight Desk research on : Forward looking research transport research projects - Mobility4EU,FUTRE,RACE 2050, OPTIMISM, METRIC, IKNOW Transport industry forward looking reports/ technology-oriented websites and private/initiatives

2. Methodology- Definition Literature gap for precise definition Definition: a concept or idea that presents how mobility takes place between two places, referring to the movement of passengers or freight. It may also describe the vehicle and the way that transportation or mobility takes place

2. Methodology- examples Automation – autonomous vehicles (AVs): This concept suggests that mobility will be automated, including any type of autonomous vehicle/vessel Electrification – electric vehicles (EVs): This concept suggests a shift from conventional fuels towards electricity, including any type of electrified vehicle/vessel Mobility as a Service (MaaS): MaaS is already a well know concept focusing on shifting from ownership of personal vehicles towards services that offer mobility as a product, such as ride-sharing, car-sharing, ride-hailing Hyperloop: This concept refers to mobility using underground high-speed rail

3. Identified transport concepts Slow Travel / Slow Logistics Superfast Ground and Underground Transportation Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) Magnetic Mobility, Magnetic Levitation Personal Air Transportation, "Flying Cars", Flying Taxis" Seamless Transport Chains – Multimodality, Intermodality Automation Noiseless Transport Mega Aircrafts Delivery Drones Electrification Vertical Transportation Small Vehicles Developed Fit-For-Urban-Purpose Expandable Cars Smart Use of Travel Time Shared Mobility, On- Demand Mobility, Mobility as a Service (MaaS) Private Car Ownership, Luxury Vehicles Seamless Security Checks, Innovative Check - In Processes Capsules Transported by Carrier Aircraft Blue Modal Shift Floating Delivery hubs Bus Rapid Transit Corridors Co-Modality Freight Consolidation Hubs, Freight Distribution Centres Urban Cross-Modal Logistics Personal Mobility Devices High-Speed Rail “Pragmatic Cars" and "Fun Cars" Urban Cable Cars Parcels into the Receivers' Car Trunk Delivery Boxes Crowd Delivery Quite Night Urban Deliveries Freight Shuttle Systems Smart, Dynamic and Interactive Highways

3. Identified transport concepts 7 most cited concepts were extracted for passenger and freight respectively Some concepts were relevant to both passenger/freight sectors i.e.: Electrification, automation, MaaS/FaaS Identified time horizon of implementation based on literature: Short (2020-2025) Medium (2025-2030) Long term (2030-2035+)

4. Future transport concepts- Passenger Passenger Transport - applicable Transport Concepts Total Number of Citations Road Aviation Rail Waterborne Timeline for Implementation Automation – Passenger Transport (autonomous cars, aircrafts, trains, vessels) 34 + Medium term Shared Mobility, On-Demand Mobility, MaaS 29 - Electrification – Passenger Transport (electric cars, trains, aircrafts, vessels) 26 Seamless Transport Chains – Multimodality, Intermodality 20 Long term Personal Air Transportation, "Flying Cars", “Flying Taxis” 15 Smart Use of Travel Time 13 High-Speed Rail for Passenger Transport 9 Superfast Ground and Underground Transportation, Hyperloops

4. Future transport concepts-freight Freight Transport - applicable Transport Concepts Total Number of Citations Road Aviation Rail Waterborne Pipeline Timeline for Implementation Shared Mobility, On-Demand Mobility, MaaS, FaaS, LaaS 29 + N/A Medium term Seamless Transport Chains – Multimodality, Intermodality 20 Long term Automation – Freight Transport (autonomous trucks, trains, vessels) 18 Electrification – Freight Transport (electric trucks, trains, aircrafts, vessels) 16 - Delivery Drones 10 Short term Superfast Ground and Underground Transportation, Cargo Tubes, Underground Freight Pipelines 9 Freight Consolidation Hubs, Freight Distribution Centres 6

Dominant transport concepts (1/6) Automation across all transport sectors Road 2025-2035 fully autonomous cars and highway platooning Aviation (automation already exists in avionics systems and traffic management) Rail- 50% of metro lines to be fully automated by 2020-2025.Trials of autonomous trains already in action Waterborne- 2020-2025 Yara Birkeland vessel Svitzer Hermod vessel MUNIN project Shared mobility, on-demand mobility, MaaS, TaaS, FaaS, LaaS One of the most cited concepts Whim – Helsinki, UbiGo – Gothenburg, Qixxit – Germany, Moovel – Germany, Beeline – Singapore, SMILE – Vienna, Bridj – Boston Kansas City, Washington, Communauto/Bixi – Canada

Dominant transport concepts (2/6) Electrification- includes electric, fuel cell vehicles and electrification of vehicle systems One of the most commonly referred concept Road: 9-20 million vehicles by 2020, 40-70 mill by 2025 Aviation: Electric propulsion envisaged for small aircrafts up to 100 seats. Fuel cells for auxiliaries Rail: Electricity already used. Fuel cell pilots by Alstom, Siemens Waterborne: 20+ projects using hydrogen fuel cells have been carried out since early 2000 2,500 ships in the world are powered by electric propulsion using diesel electric, hybrid systems or battery

Dominant transport concepts (3/6) Seamless transport chains seamless logistics seamless national and international travel for passengers seamless transport chains as a result of MaaS establishment of multimodal centres and intermodal mega-hubs integration of all transport modes Personal air transportation Flying cars, taxis- by 2030 CityAirbus, Vahana, PopUp, Ehang 184, Volocopter 2X, Lilium and Uber Elevate

Dominant transport concepts (4/6) Delivery drones: Amazon, Google, Alibaba, UPS, DHL and Wal-Mart have already started experimenting with such systems Urban usage or for remote areas 70.000 drones will deliver about 200 million lightweight parcels across Europe in 2035- SESAR Adoption before 2030 Smart use of travel time Result of autonomous driving surfing the web/car-based media consumption, working/multitasking, studying, sleeping/relaxing, watching movies, online shopping

Dominant transport concepts (5/6) High speed rail High-speed rail as an attractive alternative to aviation, especially for medium and even long-distance passenger travel High-speed rail as a cheaper, greener and more sustainable transport alternative Need for a complete European high-speed rail network Hyperloop Virgin Hyperloop One, that aims to provide Dubai by 2021 TransPod that is focused on building a Toronto-Montreal hyperloop.

Dominant transport concepts (6/6) Freight consolidation hubs/distribution centres Potential use at port, airport, market, rail inland hub centric or at the outskirts of cities Shifting the distribution of freight to inner city using smaller electric vehicles or during night time using autonomous vehicles Automation will be required Superfast Ground and Underground Transportation, Cargo Tubes, Underground Freight Pipelines CargoCap Cargo sous terrain (CST)

5. Conclusions Researched how passengers and goods will be transported in the future based on literature review Defined the term transport concepts Automation across all transport sectors Shared mobility, on-demand mobility, MaaS, TaaS, FaaS, LaaS Electrification Seamless transport chains Personal air transportation Delivery drones High speed rail Freight consolidation hubs/distribution centres Superfast Ground and Underground Transportation,