HOW DO WE KNOW WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT POLITICS? Fact or opinion: http://www.pewresearch.org/quiz/news-statements-quiz/ What do we know: http://www.pewresearch.org/quiz/the-news-iq-quiz/ What have long been the main sources of knowledge in US politics? Formal documents and education, tradition and culture, authority, commonsense guessing & personal observation What’s wrong with knowing politics this way? What is overgeneralization? Why are our brains hardwired to do it? Why do people selectively review and incorporate evidence when they know they shouldn’t? We are rationally irrational Why is disinformation is so prevalent?: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/lists/people/comparing-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-truth-o-met/ Why does it matter if we’re sometimes wrong about the big things? Some data to come below… How informed are we about politics and then a couple of examples about what happens when we don’t know much about politics…
HOW DO WE KNOW WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT POLITICS? What have long been the main sources of knowledge in US politics? Formal documents and education, tradition and culture, authority, commonsense guessing & personal observation What’s wrong with knowing politics this way? What is overgeneralization? What is the accessibility bias? Why are our brains hardwired to do it? Why do people selectively review and incorporate evidence when they know they shouldn’t? We are rationally irrational Why is disinformation is so prevalent?: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/lists/people/comparing-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-truth-o-met/ Why does it matter if we’re sometimes wrong about the big things? Some data to come… How informed are we about politics and then a couple of examples about what happens when we don’t know much about politics…
Pew - 2013
How much in debt is the US? What are the main source of America’s debt? Which party, when in control, makes rich Americans richer and poor Americans poorer? Why? Whose right… Trump or Bernie? How much to electoral campaigns matter?
Source: http://www. cbpp
Does globalization hit us all? US
And then W. Europe
WHAT DO POLITICAL SCIENTISTS KNOW THAT YOU DON’T? (READING) Campaigns, debates, and money in politics doesn’t matter very much. The overall state of the economy, the popularity of the incumbent president, and partisanship does. Most elections are won by turnout, not changing opinions. This is why political polling is so hard. It’s hard to know what people want from government and leaders: Not consistent, not well informed, mostly not strong in opinions Leaders don’t listen to public opinion—they make it. Political independents aren’t independent We seem to be “collectively rational”: Betting markets Almost all “spontaneous movements” aren’t spontaneous
HOW DO WE STUDY POLITICS SCIENTIFICALLY? What are the main types of scientific inquiry? Empirical research: Describe, categorize, explain, and predict American PSC vs. everyone else… we tend to be the most empirical and the least normative What makes modern PSC claim to be scientific? It claims to be objective, empirical, testable & falsifiable, generalizable (i.e., we search for regularities), replicable, and hopefully cumulative Why use the scientific method? The method of testing theories and hypotheses by applying certain rules of analysis to the observation and interpretation of reality under strictly delineated circumstances (transmissible). Do this, and you can sometimes replicate and build knowledge Why is it a lot easier than it used to be to study politics scientifically? The spread of democracy, globalization, and technology