Advanced Approaches to System Modeling

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Presentation transcript:

Advanced Approaches to System Modeling Natalie Matthews, Abt Associates Mary Scwhartz, Abt Associates

Advanced Approaches to System Modeling Matthews and Schwartz, Abt Intro myself (and any co-presenters) Who’s in the room? CoC stakeholders HMIS stakeholders TA HUD Other? What are folks experience with system modeling?

What is your experience with system modeling? No experience, not sure what system modeling is Familiar with the concept of system modeling, but haven’t had an opportunity to do it yet Been there, done that, have the t shirt! Intro myself (and any co-presenters) Who’s in the room? CoC stakeholders HMIS stakeholders TA HUD Other? What are folks experience with system modeling?

Learning Objectives Identify and discuss the system modeling process Understand the data and resources necessary to complete the system modeling process Preview HUD’s new tool to assist with system modeling, called the SPIST

Acronyms SPIST: System Performance Improvement Strategies Tool; a web-based system modeling tool in development for CoCs LSA: Longitudinal System Analysis; a HUD report, produced from a CoC’s HMIS and submitted via HDX 2.0

System Modeling Data driven planning process, where a community develops a model of the optimal system to prevent and end homelessness in their CoC Ideally, this process is iterative and is inclusive of key stakeholders (important to think of this as much more than a “data project”)

Example of System Modeling: Washington, D.C. (Homeward DC) Led to increased funding from a broad group of stakeholders $23 million in new investments $100 million for affordable and supportive housing Information on report is available at https://ich.dc.gov Homeward DC plan supported by broad group of stakeholders District funding in first year: $23 million in new investments to jumpstart implementation of the plan $100 million for affordable housing and supportive housing Plan has many strategies to leverage other resources and improve practice and performance

Introduction to System Modeling In most communities current systems do not have the resources or interventions to rapidly end homelessness for all households experiencing homelessness each year Systems are learning how to end homelessness – proving it for Veterans It is hard to reallocate – usually a program-centered decision instead of a person-centered decision

Thinking of an Optimal System If you could start with a blank slate, what would your optimal system look like? How would you serve people differently? What inventory would your optimal system have? How much would it cost to have an optimal system to meet the needs of every person experiencing homelessness each year? Think for a minute: If you had a blank slate – if you had the money that is spent for various homeless programs but no actual programs – what would you do? What would a new system to meet the needs of everyone experiencing homelessness in your community look like? Would it be exactly like the system you have today? Not starting with current system performance or inventory – starting with the data CoCs have and the best available information, including coordinated entry data, about what people need to rapidly end their homelessness for good. Person-centered approach. Once you have this model you can use it to create a plan to guide reallocation

Vision of an Optimal System A homeless crisis response system that has enough housing and services of the right type to: Prevent homelessness when possible Rapidly and successfully end homelessness when it occurs so people exit to housing and remain housed with the least amount of assistance needed A community with this kind of system would be community where homelessness is rare, brief and non-recurring Relationship to System Performance Measures Prevent homelessness ( SPM 3 # of homeless persons and SPM 5 # of newly homeless persons) Rapidly exit people from homelessness (SPM #1 LOTH) Successfully exit people from homelessness (SPM # 7b Successful PH Exits and SPM #2 returns to homelessness) Does your current system have the right mix of interventions to do this? How do you ensure you are effectively using resources?

Guiding Principles Person-centered Housing First Permanent housing focused Side doors to projects and system closed Coordinated entry used to: determine best intervention for each individual or family fill all project vacancies Committee members not representing organization or projects – need to think about best way to serve people experiencing homelessness

What is System Modeling? Tool to assist CoCs to develop a vision of the set of interventions that would more effectively serve everyone who becomes homeless Process to help CoCs understand how different levers such as length of stay in projects and in the system, targeting of programs and change in operations can affect performance Model of an optimized system can help communities estimate the resources needed to meet the needs of homeless households and develop a plan for the transition to an optimized system Creates an inventory of the interventions needed to resolve the homelessness of all individuals and families presenting to the system annually BUT doesn’t determine the intervention needed for any particular individual or family – that is role of coordinated entry and client preferences A tool that can take the data a CoC knows about people experiencing homelessness and model what an optimized system would look like – once have that model than can estimate costs and plan transition We have used this process to develop multi-year plans to allow for transition of existing inventory to new inventory – DC, LA, Dayton

System Modeling Process

Step 1: Program Models What housing and services interventions would be needed in an optimized system? Who would need the each type of program? For how long? What housing resources and/or services would be provided each type of program? Hard to step away from what programs currently exist in the CoC and look at what people really need – CE assessment data and master list can help – Challenge for Committee Need to keep program models updated as go through process – ultimately that is template for contracting, monitoring and performance evaluation

Step 2: Understand Current System Estimate annual number of households experiencing homelessness Review system utilization data: Length of stay in projects Combination of projects used as a pathway to permanent housing Exits to permanent housing from different program types LSA data will be HUGELY helpful with the items listed above, as all are included in the LSA Refer to LSA here to help with education about that data set? Adjust HMIS data as needed with other data – DV, unsheltered, projects not in HMIS – goal is to have a good foundation of the number of people experiencing homelessness CH number includes all unsheltered on the night of the PIT

Annual Demand Adjust HMIS data as needed with other data – DV, unsheltered, projects not in HMIS – goal is to have a good foundation of the number of people experiencing homelessness CH number includes all unsheltered on the night of the PIT No chronic family households because of system utilization patterns that created long LOS without it being clear that it was the family’s needs that caused the LOS

Map Current System Think about how people use your current system and how you would like your system to function Look at where people come from, what projects people use in what sequence, what is expected at the end of each project. How does this affect the System Performance Measures you will need to report soon? Credit to CSH

Step 3: Develop Service Pathways and Length of Stay Develop pathways through the system that people are most likely to use Ex. Shelter to RRH to PH exit Estimate what percentage of people will need each type of pathway Ex. Coordinated entry data shows that 40% of families need rapid re-housing assistance Estimate how long people will stay at each program in each pathway Ex. Shelter stay 1 month then RRH 6 months then exit to PH Community discussion – start from current patterns of system usage and from CE data – focus on getting people to housing, shortening length of time in shelter An art based on data and best possible research and best estimates. An iterative process with a lot of adjustments. This is difficult work to keep the proposed program models at the front of everyone’s mind instead of having stakeholders focused on what is currently happening in projects. Need strong leadership.

Step 3: Developing Pathways Picture from additional work we did to model youth system Gave each planning group 100 cents representing 100% of the people presenting for services each year Asked them to develop pathways through the homeless system – think about natural program progressions or dependencies (ex. need shelter or other temporary housing to meet immediate needs before exit to PH with RRH) Estimate what % need each pathway – takes a lot of discussion, data informed but we don’t have research to make definite estimates

Calculating Inventory Estimate length of stay in each program in each service pathway Use service pathways and length of stay estimates to calculate how many units or subsidy slots are needed at a point in time Example – 10 families enter shelter each month 20% need shelter only for 2 weeks 1 bed 10% go to TH after 1 month in shelter 1 bed 50% go to RRH after 1 month in shelter 5 beds 20% go to PSH after 2 months in shelter 4 beds 11 beds This is a simple example to keep the math clear, not related to the DC charts in other slides Use this approach with each program type to estimate how many units or subsidy or service slots are needed at a point in time to meet the needs of all people with a housing crisis who enter the homeless system in a year.

Showing the chart from the last year of DC’s five year plan – LOS reduced over time

Step 4: Modeling the Inventory to Meet Annual Need For the fifth year of the DC plan – this is the point in time inventory needed to serve the 1,466 families expected to present for services each year using the service pathways and LOS projections from the previous slide In contrast in Year 1 the LOS in shelter was 6 months and the inventory needed was 677 units

Step 5: Develop Cost Estimates Survey current projects of each program type to gather comprehensive cost data Develop estimated costs for each program type using program descriptions in program models document

Step 6: Transition to an Optimal System If have cost estimates for current and optimal programs can project system costs during transition to develop resource requests Know you may be thinking BUT how can I pay for a system big enough to provide interventions to everybody who seeks services? It is much easier to advocate for money if you have a specific plan that shows what is needed instead of an open-ended ask not grounded in data and defined assumptions

Tools and Resources for System Modeling

Leveraging Existing Reports for System Modeling LSA includes information needed in Steps 2 and 3, regarding length of time homeless and pathways

Leveraging Existing Reports for System Modeling Data included in the LSA that is helpful for determining pathways includes: Households who used PSH only Households who used ES/SH + PSH only Households who used ES/SH+RRH+PSH only Households who used RRH+PSH only Households with any other project combinations not specified above

Upcoming Resource HUD is working on the development of the SPIST, the System Performance Improvement Strategies Tool Will be a Performance Module, to help understand the current system (including pathways) and will be built into HDX 2.0 (timing of module is TBD) Will be two other modules (still in development), that will also help with system modeling Once released, this web based tool will be available for use in the System Modeling process that we went through today NOT intended to be passive; the SPIST is a tool; YOU determine what happens next