Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 2015 Crop Market Outlook Ag Leader Ames, Iowa July 24, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted (mil. acres) 91.9 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.9 Yield (bu./acre) 147.2 123.1 158.1 171.0 166.8 Production (mil. bu.) 12,360 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,530 Beg. Stocks 1,128 989 821 1,232 1,779 Imports 29 160 36 27 25 Total Supply 13,517 11,904 14,686 15,474 15,334 Feed & Residual 4,557 4,315 5,034 5,300 5,275 Ethanol 5,000 4,641 5,134 5,200 5,225 Food, Seed, & Other 1,428 1,397 1,369 1,346 1,360 Exports 1,543 730 1,917 1,850 1,875 Total Use 12,528 11,083 13,454 13,696 13,735 Ending Stocks 1,599 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.22 6.89 4.46 3.70 3.75 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.0 77.2 76.8 83.7 85.1 Yield (bu./acre) 41.9 40.0 44.0 47.8 46.0 Production (mil. bu.) 3,094 3,042 3,358 3,969 3,885 Beg. Stocks 215 169 141 92 255 Imports 16 41 72 30 Total Supply 3,325 3,252 3,570 4,091 4,170 Crush 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,830 1,840 Seed & Residual 88 105 97 181 130 Exports 1,365 1,317 1,647 1,825 1,775 Total Use 3,155 3,111 3,478 3,836 3,744 Ending Stocks 425 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 12.50 14.40 13.00 10.05 9.25 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

U.S. Soybean Acreage Top: 2015 acreage Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS 4 4

Corn Conditions Source: USDA-NASS 5 5

Soybean Conditions Source: USDA-NASS 6 6

Very Early Corn Yield Estimate

Very Early Soy Yield Estimate

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Current Corn Futures 3.94 Source: CME Group, 7/23/2015

Current Soybean Futures 9.39 Source: CME Group, 7/23/2015

2014/15 Crop Margins

2015/16 Crop Margins

Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Quarterly stocks report showed strong demand Resurvey of acreage for Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas Market is debating whether this year’s rain makes grain Projected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops 2014/15 USDA 2015/16 Futures (7/23/15) Corn $3.70 $3.75 $3.78 $3.94 Soybeans $10.05 $9.25 $10.10 $9.39

Net Farm Income Source: USDA-OCE

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/