Crop Market Outlook ProAg Outlook Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, Iowa Nov. 5, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 Δ Area Planted (mil. acres) 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.4 -0.5 Yield (bu./acre) 123.1 158.1 171.0 168.0 0.5 Production (mil. bu.) 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,555 -30 Beg. Stocks 989 821 1,232 1,731 -1 Imports 160 36 32 30 Total Supply 11,904 14,686 15,479 15,316 -31 Feed & Residual 4,315 5,034 5,317 5,275 Ethanol 4,641 5,134 5,207 5,250 Food, Seed, & Other 1,397 1,369 1,359 1,380 Exports 730 1,917 1,864 1,850 Total Use 11,083 13,454 13,748 13,755 Ending Stocks 1,561 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.89 4.46 3.70 3.80 0.05 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 Δ Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.2 76.8 83.3 83.2 -1.1 Yield (bu./acre) 40.0 44.0 47.5 47.2 0.1 Production (mil. bu.) 3,042 3,358 3,927 3,888 -47 Beg. Stocks 169 141 92 191 -19 Imports 41 72 33 30 Total Supply 3,252 3,570 4,052 4,109 -66 Crush 1,689 1,734 1,875 1,880 10 Seed & Residual 105 97 143 130 Exports 1,317 1,647 1,843 1,675 -50 Total Use 3,111 3,478 3,861 3,685 -40 Ending Stocks 425 -25 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 14.40 13.00 10.10 9.15 0.00 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Corn Objective Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

Soybean Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Soybean Yield Estimate Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Current Corn Futures 3.81 3.58 Source: CME Group, 11/2/2015

Current Soybean Futures 8.40 8.40 Source: CME Group, 11/2/2015

2015/16 Crop Margins

2016/17 Crop Margins

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Rain made grain, but we’re still debating how much Exports weaken as dollar strengthens and China slows Negative margins for 2015-2016 crops 2014/15 USDA 2015/16 Futures (11/2/15) 2016/17 Corn $3.70 $3.80 $3.58 $3.81 Soybeans $10.10 $9.15 $8.40

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/