THE IRAQ WAR AND US-ASIA RELATIONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY

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Presentation transcript:

THE IRAQ WAR AND US-ASIA RELATIONS IN THE 21ST CENTURY INSTITUTE FOR THE HISTORY OF NATURAL SCIENCE CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES BEIJING APRIL 4, 2003

INTRODUCTION SINCERE THANKS: PROF LIU, IHNS, CAS, DR. NEEDHAM, FU WANGFU. TWO BROAD THEMES: IRAQ WAR & AMERICAN DOMESTIC CONFLICT (BUSH VS. OPPOSITION). MULTILATERAL ISSUES IN ASIA & IMPORTANCE OF US-CHINA RELATIONS. MY VIEWS ON IRAQ WAR (CHINA: BEIDA, TV, GOVT) US WAR VIOLATES UN CHARTER & INTERNATIONAL LAW. WAR: HOW LONG? WHAT TACTICS? WHOSE NATIONALISM? AND WMD? WAR IS DESTABILIZING UN, MIDDLE EAST, WORLD GEOPOLITICS.

IRAQ WAR: “TWO DIFFERENT AMERICAS” “BUSH’S AMERICA”: REPUBLICAN RIGHT & STRONG IDEOLOGY. ROOTS: COLD WAR, JAPAN, KOREA & VIETNAM. 1990s: ANGRY REPUBLICANS VS. CLINTON, ORGANIZATION & MEDIA. MOMENTUM: 9/11 & HEROIC BUSH, “AXIS OF EVIL,” 2002 “BUSH DOCTRINE.” IRAQ: “EVIL SADDAM,” DEMOCRACY/CAPITALISM, OIL, FAMILY. WHOLE ADMINISTRATION, EXCEPT COLIN POWELL (HIS FUTURE?). GOAL: “QUICK & CLEAN,” BOOST BAD ECONOMY, WIN 2004.

“TWO DIFFERENT AMERICAS” (page 2) “ANOTHER AMERICA” IN OPPOSITION, BOTH NOISY & QUIET. PROTEST: VIETNAM PROTEST POWER. GLOBALIZATION TO FOCUS. OPPOSITION: MUCH GREATER, DEPENDS ON WAR, ECONOMY, CONFIDENCE. OBSTACLES: POST-9/11 PATRIOTISM. PRESS SELF-CENSORING. POLLS? 2004: “DARK HORSE” CANDIDATE? REMEMBER 1968 & 1992. ODDS ON 2004? RIGHT NOW, “0” BUT BY 2004, MAYBE “1 IN 3” WHAT’S AT STAKE? THE FUTURE OF WORLD STABILITY. BUSH WINS: UNILATERALISM, GLOBAL BULLYING, DESTABILIZATION. OPPOSITION WINS: TOUGH, SENSITIVE MULTILATERALISM. US VALUES!

US & ASIA IN 21ST CENTURY: ARGUMENT FOR MULTILATERALISM US & ASIA IN 21ST C: MULTIPLE POWERS, MULTIPLE PROBLEMS. IRAQ NOT HIGHEST SECURITY THREAT! WHAT ARE THE BIG ISSUES? MULTILATERALISM: 1972-2000: ASIAN STABILITY & GROWTH. LEADERSHIP! ASYMMETRICAL ASIAN POWERS: US, CHINA, JAPAN, RUSSIA, INDIA. MULTILATERAL ASIAN SECURITY THREATS: KOREA: KIM’S MOTIVATIONS? MULTILATERAL & BILATERAL. MIL FORCE? INDIA & PAKISTAN: EXPLOSIVE. DOMESTIC ISSUES. US TAINTED. PRC IGNORING. MY POINT: ISSUES INVOLVE KEY ROLES FOR BOTH US & CHINA.

US & ASIA: ARGUMENT FOR MULTILATERALISM (p. 2) US & CHINA: 21ST C. “MOST IMPORTANT RELATIONSHIP.” CHINA’S MOMENT: ASIA’S STAR, SUCCESS & PROBLEMS, OPTIMISM. US MOMENT: #1 SUPERPOWER, BUT FOR WHAT ENDS? US-CHINA: POWERFUL HISTORY & YET “LOVE-HATE CYCLES.” “NEW CHINA” & “ANOTHER AMERICA”: ASIAN STABILITY & GROWTH. LONG-TERM: CAN WE HAVE ASIAN VISION & OVERCOME SUSPICION? SHORT-TERM: CAN WE COPE WITH ONSLAUGHT OF UNILATERALISM?