Resource Adequacy Assessment for 2015 Interim Results Resource Adequacy Forum Technical Committee Meeting July 28, 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

Resource Adequacy Assessment for 2015 Interim Results Resource Adequacy Forum Technical Committee Meeting July 28, 2010

Summary of Interim Results* Last calibration of deterministic metrics was done in 2008 Using 2008 model and data, 2015 summer LOLP is 0% Using current model and data, 2015 summer LOLP is 5.7%** What happened? * Results not for distribution ** Last year’s assessment implied a 5% LOLP (see next slide) July 28, 2010 2

Last Year’s Assessment for Summer Peaking Adequacy Used deterministic metric: Sustained Peak Reserve Margin = 24% Data used STM loads Current non-hydro resources Old 2008 BiOp and hydro peaking Calculated SPRM = 24% Implies a 5% LOLP July 28, 2010 3

Major Changes and Effects* Loads: 2008 used HELM ~ 75% Hydro: Wind reserves, new BiOp, better bypass spill simulation ~ 20% Model: better hydro flex operation, LLH and HLH purchase ~ 5% * These percentages are illustrative only July 28, 2010 4

Monthly Loads Forecast for 2015 using 1929 Temperatures STM HELM Diff Dec 22999 21740 1259 Jan 25984 24799 1185 Feb 20862 24111 -3249 Jul 20469 18344 2125 Aug 21014 18569 2445 Sep 18651 18504 147 Annual 20340 HELM = EPRI’s Hourly Energy Load Model STM = Council’s Short-term Load Forecasting Model July 28, 2010 5

Hourly Peak Loads Forecast for 2015 using 1929 Temperatures STM HELM Diff Dec 28673 26876 1797 Jan 33903 32543 1360 Feb 26109 33046 -6937 Jul 25972 21745 4227 Aug 27029 22168 4861 Sep 22879 22812 60 HELM = EPRI’s Hourly Energy Load Model STM = Council’s Short-term Load Forecasting Model July 28, 2010 6

Hydro Peaking Reduction Compared to 2008 Data (MW) Peak Hour Duration Period 2-Hr 4-Hr 6-Hr 8-Hr 10-Hr 12-Hr Dec -1423 -1383 -1566 -1564 -1550 -1525 Jan -1561 -1629 -1670 -1591 -1507 -1431 Feb -836 -432 -130 -43 45 110 Jul -2682 -2568 -2244 -2101 -2051 -1965 Aug 1 -2996 -2759 -2236 -2144 -2120 -1961 Aug 2 -3250 -3297 -3423 -3343 -3129 -2912 Sep -1201 -1097 -1047 -1016 -853 -706 July 28, 2010 7

Hydro Peaking Reduction due to Wind Reserve Requirements (MW) Peak Hour Duration Period 2-Hr 4-Hr 6-Hr 8-Hr 10-Hr 12-Hr Dec -19 -149 -404 -387 -365 -325 Jan -64 -186 -406 -407 -393 -341 Feb -192 -274 -512 -509 -472 -416 Jul -41 -169 -255 -321 -318 Aug 1 -36 -295 -316 Aug 2 -227 -652 -951 -942 -820 -669 Sep -33 -444 -699 -778 -742 -612 July 28, 2010 8

Where do we go from here? Complete review of data and model (fall) Report interim results Potential summer peaking inadequacy for 2015 Caveat: the standard is being reviewed Finish Phase II of Forum’s work plan (review of methodology by early 2011) Revise standard, if appropriate (early 2011) Reassess adequacy (June 2011) July 28, 2010 9