Illusory Correlations This activity demonstrates illusory correlation—that is, the tendency to see a relationship where none exists. RELATED TOPICS: Correlation and causation, thinking critically. NOTES Before you begin this demonstration, duplicate and distribute to each student the handout that accompanies the activity. (Students will be directed to use the handout, beginning with the next slide.) Handout file name = HO_IllCorrelation.doc Acknowledgements: This demonstration was written by Martin Bolt, Calvin College

Does a Stereotype Exist? A psychologist sought to discover whether research would support the stereotype that females are more emotional than males. The psychologist found 16 studies in which either males or females were observed to be either quite emotional or nonemotional. Review the handout. You will be asked to indicate what this data suggests about the relationship between gender and emotionality. NOTES Make sure each student has a copy of the handout that accompanies the activity (file name = HO_IllCorrelation.doc). The question on the next slide is based on the handout, which presents a psychologist’s review of research findings.

Which conclusion do you agree with MOST? Women were somewhat more likely to be emotional. Women were slightly more likely to be emotional. Women and men were equally likely to be emotional. Women were slightly less likely to be emotional. Women were somewhat less likely to be emotional. NOTES If you are using Classroom Response System (iClicker) technology to poll your students, you can graph their responses. For more information on iClicker, go to: http://www.iclicker.com If you don’t have iClicker technology, tally responses manually by having students write responses on a piece of paper. You may collect the papers or ask students to raise their hands to indicate the response they chose. You can use class responses to launch a discussion or start a debate.

Interpretation Most people conclude that the overall results of these studies show that, in comparison to men, women are slightly or moderately more likely to be emotional. That is an illusory correlation--that is, seeing a relationship where none exists. In comparison to men, women were neither more nor less likely to be emotional. NOTES Point out that 12 of the studies examined women and 9 found them emotional; 4 of the studies examined men and 3 found them emotional. So, for each gender, 3 out of 4 (or 75%) of the participants proved to be emotional.

Consider This… Why do you think many people believe that the data shows women to be more emotional than men? Can you identify other popular beliefs that may reflect illusory correlations? Why are people vulnerable to seeing relationships where none exist? What does the existence of illusory correlation indicate about human thinking? NOTES Point out that when we believe there is a relationship between two things, we are likely to notice and recall instances that confirm our belief (Trolier & Hamilton, 1986). Also point out that when we notice random coincidences, we may forget that they are random and instead see them as correlated. In this way, we easily deceive ourselves by seeing what is not there. Finally, point out that illusory correlations help explain some superstitious beliefs--for example: infertile couples who adopt become more likely to conceive (Gilovich, 1991). Those who conceive after adopting capture our attention, so we’re less likely to notice those who adopt and never conceive or those who conceive without adopting. ***These questions should be used to promote class discussion. They are not constructed for use with Classroom Response System (iClicker) technology. Sources: Trolier, T.K., & Hamilton, D.L. (1986). Variables influencing judgments of correlational relations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 50, 879-888. Gilovich, T. (1991). How we know what isn’t so: The fallibility of human reason in everyday life. New York: Free Press.