Prospects for Progressive Politics: Harnessing Drivers and Trends Andrew Gamble
NEW TIMES 1 Global Changes in Capitalism, Politics, and Culture 1980s Post-Fordism, Flexible Specialisation The Competition/Social Investment State Individualism, Autonomy, Choice
NEW TIMES 2 Global changes in capitalism, politics and culture 2000s The information economy The network state Identity, Risk and Security
HOW HAS THE UK ADJUSTED? Two Views 1. UK political economy now well balanced Liberal welfare regime High employment, Low inflation, Moderate growth Choice between modest redistribution/modest tax cuts 2. UK political economy a hybrid Political stalemate Spending on the welfare state either too low or too high Extended reach of the state/declining faith in its capacity Choice between substantial expansion or contraction
TRENDS The general direction of action and events Widening inequality, nationally and globally Increasing emphasis on investment in human capital and quality of services Expectations outpacing resources Increasing reach of the state accompanied by fragmentation Ageing and static/declining populations in Europe Identity politics, populism and declining participation
DRIVERS Shaping the Political Terrain Public Attitudes to tax, welfare, claimants, migrants, EU Public Value: Costs and Delivery Citizenship: Identity and Belonging Individual Autonomy: Choice and Diversity Well-Being: Security and Happiness Progressive Politics needs a programme and a convincing narrative for all four
OPPORTUNITIES Public Value: Relegitimising of public spending Redefining of national minimum Consolidation of universal programmes Citizenship: Expanding and deepening EU, Multiculturalism Autonomy: Self-government and Accountability Well-being: New agendas Revival of public domain, public ethos Anti-Poverty Quality of Work
DANGERS Public Value: Decline of public ethos, public domain Erosion of universalism Residual welfare regime Citizenship: Campaigns against migration, and EU Narrowing of solidarity Problems with participation Autonomy: Resistance to higher taxes Declining support for collective welfare and redistribution Well-being: Difficulty of matching private sector quality Impact of inequality on social cohesion