Climate Change Dr Mark Rehfisch Director of Development Mark.Rehfisch@bto.org British Trust for Ornithology www.bto.org Citizen Science research charity with 40,000 volunteers Remit to understand drivers biodiversity population change Very strong in biodiversity monitoring (1923-) & modelling 40 PhD scientists working collaboratively in Europe, Africa, USA etc

Documenting Impacts: effects on bird communities Warming leads to: diversity specialisation increase decrease Davey et al. In review. Global Ecology & Biogeography Climate Change Projecting future population change Using long-term count / habitat data under 2080 low-high emissions scenarios Renwick et al. In review. Journal Biogeography 1997 2080 Low High Informing Adaptation: Resilience of Natura 2000 network ▲Sites gaining species (low, medium, high) ▼Sites losing species (low, medium, high) Increase in species loss with higher levels of climate change BTO looking for partners for future EU work Three components to our climate change work: Documenting impacts Long-term data provide evidence-base to inform policy 2. Projecting the future Models inform the likely future extent of the problem Informing adaptation Models to quantify what can be done and evidence to test effectiveness of adaptation www.bto.org/science/climate-change

Climate Change - summary Long-term monitoring provides data for - Documenting impacts - Developing models to project the future & inform adaptation Monitoring provides information about - Productivity and survival of individual birds - Changes in populations and communities Targeted analyses enable - Evidence of impacts to be collated to inform policy - Adaptation solutions to be modelled and developed - Monitoring to test the effectiveness of solutions www.bto.org/science/climate-change