Simulation and Analysis of a Golf Course Sarah Daugherty MSIM 852 December 3, 2007

Simulated System Dynamics 9 hole course Tee times: exp(11) minutes Since golfers can begin to play a hole before the golfers in front of them finish it, each hole divided into parts: Tee Fairway (Par 3 = 0; Par 4 = 1; Par 5 = 2) Green USGA averages for pace of play Par 4 = 15 minutes for group of 3 to 4 golfers

Implementation Arena Lessons learned: Next time: Golf course modeling is complicated since players can start before others are finished on the same hole. Next time: Gather actual waiting times for each hole and fit to a distribution.

Results 40 Replications Average course waiting time: 11.08 minutes Average number of players per day: 44

Analysis: Confidence Interval

Analysis: Initial Transient

Analysis: Batch Means Confidence intervals are getting larger

Analysis: Autoregressive

Analysis: Control Variates Y = exp(0.412) Y does not explain X because: We expect:

Analysis: ANOVA Introduced new system with tee times exp(9) minutes. F crit is not very big Implies treatments are similar, not different

Analysis: Paired Samples Confidence interval shrinks for Difference

Questions/Discussion