Using logistic Regression to build a better Model of Dupuytren’s contracture recurrence Brian Cohen, PhD Directors, Biometrics ACI Clinical JSM 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia July 31, 2018 JSM, 2018

Hindocha et al (2006) Reviewed records of 322 Dupuytren’s patients 4 years after fasciectomy. Overall recurrence rate of 43.8% Looked at 17 risk factors of recurrence Factor Overall Rate Recur Rate OR P-value Garrod’s pad 12.7% 63.4% 2.50 0.006 Smoking 63.3% 39.5% 0.62 0.02 Alcohol Use 19.4% 55.6% 1.80 Male 80.9% 46.1% 1.72 0.04 Age of onset < 50 yrs. 47.5% 48.7% 1.47 0.05 Bilateral Disease 69.4% 46.7% 1.48 0.07 Alcohol Use= male:28 units per week, female: 21 units per week JSM, 2018

Hindocha Diathesis Findings Diathesis Factors: Gender, Bilateral Disease, Garrod Pads, Age of onset < 50 yrs., Family History JSM, 2018

Xiaflex Recurrence Study (2015) Prospectively followed 643 Dupuytren’s patients for 5 years after Xiaflex Injection Overall recurrence rate of 48.6% Looked at 24 risk factors of recurrence Factor Overall Rate Recur Rate OR P-value Bilateral Disease 37.3% 62.3% 2.403 <0.001 TCI > 110 at Baseline 49.1% 59.4% 2.331 Family History 43.5% 55.6% 1.622 0.003 Alcohol Use 81.0% 50.9% 1.596 0.02 Age < 65 52.3% 53.0% 1.435 Epilepsy 2.3% 80.0% 4.345 Hand Trauma 19.9% 57.0% 1.521 0.04 Weight (< median) 48.8% 52.7% 1.373 0.05 Prior Surgery 38.1% 53.5% 1.364 0.06 High Alcohol Consumption 27.7% 54.5% 1.380 0.07 TCI = Total Contracture Index (sum of all baseline contractures), Weight median split based on gender, high alcohol consumption = male:14 units per week, female: 10 units per week JSM, 2018

Xiaflex Diathesis Findings New Model: Disease Severity (TCI ≥ 110), Current Age < 65 yrs., Alcohol consumption, Light weight, Family History JSM, 2018