Predicting the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking in primary care: development and validation of a simple risk algorithm by Juan Ángel Bellón, Juan de.

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Predicting the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking in primary care: development and validation of a simple risk algorithm by Juan Ángel Bellón, Juan de Dios Luna, Michael King, Irwin Nazareth, Emma Motrico, María Josefa GildeGómez-Barragán, Francisco Torres-González, Carmen Montón-Franco, Marta Sánchez-Celaya, Miguel Ángel Díaz-Barreiros, Catalina Vicens, and Patricia Moreno-Peral BJGP Volume 67(657):e280-e292 March 30, 2017 ©2017 by British Journal of General Practice

Flowchart of patients through the predictAL-10/9 study and numbers becoming hazardous alcohol drinkers. Flowchart of patients through the predictAL-10/9 study and numbers becoming hazardous alcohol drinkers. AUDIT (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test). Hazardous alcohol drinking (males: AUDIT ≥8; females: AUDIT ≥6). Abstinent or low-risk drinkers (males: AUDIT <8; females: AUDIT <6); DNA = did not attend; T0 = at baseline; T6 = at 6 months; T12 = at 12 months. Juan Ángel Bellón et al. Br J Gen Pract 2017;67:e280-e292 ©2017 by British Journal of General Practice

Calibration plots (mean predicted probability against observed probability of hazardous alcohol drinking within deciles of predicted risk) of the predictAL-10/9 risk algorithms. Calibration plots (mean predicted probability against observed probability of hazardous alcohol drinking within deciles of predicted risk) of the predictAL-10/9 risk algorithms. Juan Ángel Bellón et al. Br J Gen Pract 2017;67:e280-e292 ©2017 by British Journal of General Practice