Arizona Election Preview October 24, 2018

What’s at stake?

Federal Races U.S. Senate Mid-October NYT poll has McSally +2 McSally steadily gained lead after being down most of the summer Race is considered a dead heat AZ Republic endorsed Sinema. First statewide Democrat endorsed since 2000. Rep. Martha McSally (R) Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) MWCUA PREDICTION: TOSS-UP MWCUA ENDORSEMENT: NONE

Federal Races U.S. House of Representatives Ann Kirkpatrick(D) Former Rep for 1st District Lea Marquez Peterson (R) Tucson Hispanic Chamber CEO MWCUA PREDICTION: LIKELY DEMOCRATIC MWCUA ENDORSEMENT: NONE

Federal Races, cont’d MWCUA ENDORSEMENTS Rep. Tom O’Halleran(D) CD-1 Incumbent Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) CD-3 Incumbent Rep. Paul Gosar (R) CD-4 Incumbent Rep. Andy Biggs (R) CD-5 Incumbent

Rep. David Schweikert (R) Federal Races, cont’d MWCUA ENDORSEMENTS Rep. David Schweikert (R) CD-6 Incumbent Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) CD-7 Incumbent Rep. Debbie Lesko (R) CD-8 Incumbent

Federal Races 2019 scenarios

Federal Races 2019 scenarios

AZ Governor Race Recent early October Poll had Ducey +7 Cook Political Report: Likely R Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Likely R David Garcia (D) Gov. Doug Ducey (R) Incumbent MWCUA PREDICTION: LIKELY REPUBLICAN MWCUA ENDORSEMENT: DUCEY

AZ Constitutional Offices State Treasurer: Mark Manoil (D) vs. Kimberly Yee (R) Attorney General: January Contreras (D) vs. Mark Brnovich (R-Incumbent) Secretary of State: Katie Hobbs (D) vs. Steve Gaynor (R) MWCUA ENDORSEMENTS: YEE

Key AZ Legislative Senate Races Senate District 6: Sen. Sylvia Allen (R-Incumbent) vs Wade Carlisle (D) Senate District 28: Sen. Kate Brophy-McGee (R-Incumbent) vs Christine Marsh (D) Senate District 21: Sen. Rick Gray (R-Incumbent) vs Kathy Knecht (I) Senate District 17: Rep. J.D. Mesnard (R-Incumbent) vs Steve Weichert (D) MWCUA ENDORSEMENTS: Brophy-McGee, Gray, Mesnard

Key AZ State Senate Races Senate District 18: Sen. Sean Bowie (D-Incumbent) vs Frank Schmuck (R) Senate District 8: Sen. Frank Pratt (R-Incumbent) v. Sharon Girard (D) Senate District 20: Rep. Paul Boyer (R) v. Douglas Ervin (D) v. Doug 'Q' Quelland (I) MWCUA ENDORSEMENTS: Bowie, Pratt, Boyer

Credit Union Candidates Jennifer Samuels Board Member at Arizona FCU Democratic Candidate for AZ House District 15 Lorenzo Sierra Board Member at Canyon State CU Democratic Candidate for AZ House District 19 Visit http://mwcua.com/advocacy/cu-gotv/ for list of all endorsed candidates

AZ Legislative Endorsements Visit http://mwcua.com/advocacy/cu-gotv/ for list of all endorsed candidates

AZ Ballot Measures Proposition 125: Allows for adjustments to the Elected Officials’ Retirement Plan and Corrections Officer Retirement Plan Proposition 126: Prohibits the government from increasing taxes on services in the future. Proposition 127: Requires 50 percent of energy to come from renewable resources by 2030. Proposition 305: Upholds SB 1431, expanding Empowerment Scholarship Accounts program Proposition 306: Designates unlawful contributions from clean election accounts and removes commission exemption from rulemaking requirements

Things to Know: Election Day is November 6th, 2018 and early voting is already underway in Arizona. Voters still have until Friday to request an early ballot. To do so visit your county recorder’s website. The deadline to mail in your early ballot and have it counted on Election Day is November 2nd. If you miss the November 2nd deadline or want to wait longer to fill out your early ballot, you can drop off your early ballot at any polling location on Election Day. If you plan to vote in person or drop off your early ballot, you lcan find your polling location at voter.Azsos.Gov Visit http://mwcua.Com/advocacy/cu-gotv/ for list of all endorsed candidates

Questions?