Lessons from Complexity: Theoretical Implications for Planning Based on the Study of Leisure-led Regional Development Presentation for AESOP Complexity: 16th Meeting Jasper F. Meekes University of Groningen j.f.meekes@rug.nl

Introduction Leisure-led regional development in the Dutch province of Fryslân How can we plan for leisure, tourism and recreation, despite increasing uncertainties? (Meekes, Buda & De Roo, 2017b; Meekes, Parra & De Roo, 2017) Combining evolutionary approaches with complexity through qualitative methodology (Meekes, Buda & De Roo, 2017b)

Case Study: Fryslân Province in the north of the Netherlands 650,000 inhabitants on 3,300 km2 Population declining in rural areas Capital city of Leeuwarden European Capital of Culture in 2018 (https://www.friesland.nl/)

Complexity and Leisure Leisure-led regional development as spatial transformation Understanding complex non-linear development Processes of self-organization, emergence, co-evolution Adaptive planning through harnessing of autonomous dynamics (Meekes, Parra & De Roo, 2017)

Complexity of Leisure Fragmentation of the leisure sector High proportion of small local firms Focus on competition instead of cooperation? Balance between developing leisure and protecting existing qualities Amenity of ‘tranquility’ influenced by influx of tourists Changes in leisure with effects on region as a whole Crossovers between leisure and broader regional development Transcend economic: regional attractiveness, service levels, nature protection (Meekes, Buda & De Roo, 2017a)

Evolution of Leisure in Fryslân (Meekes, Buda & De Roo, 2017b)

Evolution of Leisure in Fryslân Development of leisure in Fryslân result of actions of individual entrepreneurs ‘Movers and shakers’ innovate based on environmental change Interactions can lead to individual initiatives to emerge and self-organize Governmental institutions can result in path dependence or path creation Institutions can frame interactions between actors Shared sense of urgency crucial for dynamic development Task for planners to strengthen interactions? (Meekes, Buda & De Roo, 2017b)

Discourses on Leisure Development Discourses enable and constrain social complex processes Influence of more prominent discourses (economic discourse) Subordinate discourses create room for path-creation Structural change most likely in case of competing discourses Challenge to the status quo, also linked to institutional change Power struggles influencing development New discourses emerging from individual level New discourses co-evolve, emerge and self-organize and can lead to path-creation (Meekes, Buda & De Roo, forthcoming)

Lessons for planning Combining ‘factual’ and ‘agreed’ reality EEG describes more factual evolution Discourse analysis to uncover intersubjective reasoning Uncovering relations between these realities Discourses influenced by factual reality and vice versa Differences between realities can spark change (De Roo, 2017)

Role for planners Plan for enabling and constraining conditions Facilitating interactions within region Focus on ‘shared sense of urgency’ Build on existing and autonomous dynamics Exploit path-creation from individual level Cope with path-dependence for adaptivity Influence discourses External but also internal marketing Role for vision making?

Discussion Role of power (right to power?) in influencing discourses Ability to predict and direct? Role of chance

References J.F.Meekes@RUG.nl De Roo, G. (2017). Ordering Principles in a Dynamic World of Change - On social complexity, transformation and the conditions for balancing purposeful interventions and spontaneous change. Progress in Planning. doi:10.1016/j.progress.2017.04.002 Meekes, J. F., Buda, D. M., & De Roo, G. (2017a). Leeuwarden 2018: Complexity of Leisure-Led Regional Development in A European Capital of Culture. Tijdschrift Voor Economische En Sociale Geografie, 108(1), 129–136. doi:10.1111/tesg.12237 Meekes, J. F., Buda, D. M., & De Roo, G. (2017b). Adaptation, interaction and urgency: a complex evolutionary economic geography approach to leisure. Tourism Geographies, 6688(May), 1–23. doi:10.1080/14616688.2017.1320582 Meekes, J. F., Buda, D. M., & De Roo, G. (forthcoming) SOCIO-SPATIAL COMPLEXITY IN LEISURE: Analyzing Regional Development Discourses in the Dutch Province of Fryslân Meekes, J. F., Parra, C., & De Roo, G. (2017). Regional development and leisure in Fryslân: a complex adaptive systems perspective through evolutionary economic geography. In P. Brouder, S. Anton Clavé, A. M. Gill, & D. Ioannides (Eds.), Tourism Destination Evolution (pp. 165–182). London & New York: Routledge. https://www.friesland.nl/en/bestineurope https://www.friesland.nl/nl/culturele-hoofdstad J.F.Meekes@RUG.nl