The keys to finding great edge rushers through the use of analytics. Edge Rusher Analytics The keys to finding great edge rushers through the use of analytics.

What are analytics? Analytics is the process of exploring and testing concrete variables to see if a pattern of success exists.

Types of Analytics Common variables associated with Edge Rushers are age, production, athleticism and physical characteristics. We will be looking at each of these variables to show what they mean. How they are collected and formulated. and how they affect NFL success outcomes.

Why it’s always nice to be young. Age Why it’s always nice to be young.

Age Based Edge Rusher Goals Age is a common variable that is often ignored with NFL players. But age speaks to potential upside and is a key variable in finding prodigies. The most consistent and best edge rushers in the NFL were younger than their peers.

Age Matters more than you think Above average age=Better Odds of becoming a Long-term Starter Younger Players=Better Odds of becoming quality players

Quality Age thresholds Every multiple All-Pro to Pro Bowl Edge Rusher since the 1987 NFL draft Class were above average in age on their draft day compared to their 877 Edge Rusher peers. So before you make a claim that a particular edge rusher is the next best edge rusher in the NFL; check his age just to be sure.

Why production is disruption

Production Based Goals A missing and often misunderstood variable in NFL Draft evaluation is production. Whether it be solo tackles, sacks or tackles for loss. How a prospect produces in college is largely how they will produce in the NFL. And market share production is the best way of gauging an edge rusher’s total impact versus raw data points.

Market Share Production Market share production is the collection of raw statistical data points. Followed by dividing that raw number against their team’s total number to give a percentage of impact that player had in that particular category. This type of data gives you the best idea of where and how much an edge rusher is producing. And is the best way to compare impact from team to team. On top of being highly correlative to quantity and quality NFL outcomes.

All-Pro to Pro Bowl Edge Rushers average significantly higher Market Share Production in college compared to averages of Long-Term Starters since 1987 NFL draft class Above Average Market Share Producers=Better odds of becoming a long-term Starter.

Why the combine matters too Athletic Metrics Why the combine matters too

Athletic Based Goals Athletic metrics are important at the Edge Rusher position. Knowing the three main types can help gauge upside, best usage and long-term consistency But without other variables, athletic metrics can be misleading in predicting future performance.

The Three main types of Athletic Metrics Explosiveness, speed and Flexibility FYI If you think of NFL Pass Rushers as Superheroes with different types of Super Powers this will all make a whole lot more sense.

Explosiveness To measure the explosiveness of a edge prospect you need the vertical and broad jump measured against mass density. You measure against mass density, because the goal is to measure how much force a player can generate from their lower body. And you use vertical and broad, because it is a more repeatable and reliable measure than the 10 yard split.

Speed To measure the speed of a prospect, you use the forty yard dash measured against mass density. Speed is an important aspect of a prospect, because not every explosive prospect is fast. And not every fast prospect is explosive. Speed is also a crucial aspect of whether a prospect can potentially make plays beyond the line of scrimmage.

Flexibility Flexibility of a prospect is measured by the Short Shuttle and 3-Cone drill against mass density. Which in laymen’s terms is all about leverage. The more flexible a prospect is, the more leverage they can generate. And it may be the most important athletic metric of all.

All three metrics viewed side by side gives you a prospect’s athletic skill set Every pass rusher is different. And all a pass rusher needs to become successful is some sort of superpower They can be very flexible Very fast Very explosive Or an endless combination of those aspects

Why it matters? Figuring out a player’s athletic skill set can show you how they can win the NFL. And forces you as the defensive coordinator to maximize that skill set. In addition, you can compare a prospect to similar athletes and judge upside potential. But the important aspect here is knowing what a player’s athletic gift is, and doing everything in your power to maximize it.

Production>Athleticism Production has a higher correlations of success in the NFL than athleticism. And it’s a concept that many will disagree with. But All multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowl edge rushers since the 1987 NFL draft class had both high end athleticism and production traits. So the next time a high end athlete doesn’t produce or under performs in the NFL, check their college production. You will hit on more prospects and make better predictions by simply understanding this simple concept.

Physical Characteristics Why Size Matters to a certain degree

Arm Length and Hand Size Contrary to popular belief hand size and Arm Length is not very correlative to NFL success. The quality threshold is at least 32- inch arms and 8 7/8 inch hands. And essentially as long as you don’t have bottom 10 percentile hand size and arm length, then the outcomes are the same. But height is where the real money is at.

Height is correlative to more long-term and consistent success 6-4 or Higher=More Upside and Impact But there is still plenty of high impact 6-1 or higher pass rushers 100% of 5-Time All-Pro Edge Rushers since the 1987 NFL Draft Class were at least 6-4 or higher With a consistent correlation of having higher percentages of pass deflection market share compared to their shorter counterparts.

Coming full circle what does it mean? Finding a physical mismatch(6-4 or taller) edge rusher with top ten percentile athleticism, high end production and entering the draft at a very young age=the Blueprint of a monster pass rusher. It’s rare to find a player to hit every one of these measures. But it’s be clear from all of the data that these are the facts. Every variable matters. And I hope what I have presented to you today will open your eyes to the vast potential of analytics in NFL draft analysis.

The End You can contact with questions or to get more information @Jimetrics on twitter or james_cobern@yahoo.com