Integrated Methods and Models for Assessing Coastal Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries University of the South.

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Presentation transcript:

Integrated Methods and Models for Assessing Coastal Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji South Pacific Regional Environment Programme International Global Change Institute, University of Waikato, New Zealand research .... K.C. Koshy R.A. Warrick

Three Objectives “Next Generation” of integrated assessment models Case studies – model implementation, validation, application Capacity building

Existing Models: Conceptual Framework Vulnerability results from changes and variations in: Climate Natural systems Drivers: e.g. solar, greenhouse gases Biophysical impacts

Biophysical and Socio-economic impacts The “Next Generation” Model Framework Vulnerability results from changes and variations in: Natural systems Human systems Drivers: e.g. demographic, technological, political and economic Drivers: e.g. solar, greenhouse gases Climate Society Biophysical and Socio-economic impacts

Biophysical and Socio-economic impacts The “Next Generation” Model Framework Vulnerability results from changes and variations in: Natural systems Human systems Drivers: e.g. demographic, technological, political and economic Drivers: e.g. solar, greenhouse gases Climate Society Biophysical and Socio-economic impacts Adaptation

New generic features of the “Next Generation” Models - AIACC Project - New generic features of the “Next Generation” Models Human dimensions of vulnerability Capacity for community-scale assessments Scenarios of future development and land use change Local sea-level rise scenario generator Improved coastal impact models Adaptation analysis Economic tools “Transient" run capacity

Reinforcing ideas from this AIACC workshop: Linking present climatic risks to future change Socio-economic scenario generation Stakeholder involvement, participatory methods Analogues (e.g. El Nino) as “anchoring” points for adaptation analysis Economic tools and multi-criteria approaches for evaluation GIS interface

Case Study Applications

Capacity Building In-country training Transfer methods and models Incorporate methods and models into the USP V&A Programme

POLICY and DECISION OUTCOMES Mainstreaming climate change issues into decision-making at multi-layers, particularly in relation to integrated coastal area management, by systematic analyses of impacts and adaptation options involving IAM as a key tool, with added value from stakeholder involvement and multi-criteria evaluation techniques Transfer of tools and approach to other small island states

PAPERS Key paper on enhanced integrated assessment and modelling for evaluation of adaptation in small island states, by developing and implementing an improved IAM to support integrated assessments builds on international journal articles already published (on “first generation” models) and reported in IPCC