Common Data Committee: Population Projections Data Updates Emily Harris, Demographic Analyst 10/19/2018
Introductions Demographic Analyst State and County Population Estimates (UPC) Methodological Developments Data Wrangling Population Projections Work Demographic Research (Migration and Fertility) Our Institute The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah prepares economic, demographic and public policy research that helps Utah prosper. We are Utah’s demographic experts, leaders on the Utah economy, and specialists on public policy and survey research.
Presentation Utah Demographic and Economic Model (UDEM) Updates Utah Population Committee Estimates Fertility Updates Employment Updates Utah Demographic and Economic Model Technical Manual What were the impacts of the updates? How does public school enrollment compare to UDEM’s school age population estimates?
Utah’s Components of Population Change Historic Context: Utah’s Components of Population Change
2017 State and County Demographic and Economic Projections Last year we released our state and county projections to 2065. It was great. We were able to supply the relevant output to the Common Data Committee
Current Updates Made to Population Projects 2018 UDEM Updates 2017 UPC Estimates Fertility Employ- ment
1) Utah Population Committee 2017 Estimates Update Current Updates Made to Population Projects 1) Utah Population Committee 2017 Estimates Update 2017 UDEM Projection and UPC Estimate Comparison 2017 UDEM 2017 UPC Difference % Difference Total Population 3,123,607 3,114,039 -9,568 -0.3% Total Births 53,382 49,502 -3,880 -7.3% Total Deaths 17,541 17,446 -95 -0.5% Total Net Migration 32,960 26,989 -5,971 -18.1%
2) Fertility and Births Updates Current Updates Made to Population Projects 2) Fertility and Births Updates Fertility assumptions in the model were more optimistic than UPC’s births trend The TFRs calculated in UDEM based on total births, declined from 2.228 in 2016 to 2.147 in 2017.
Current Updates Made to Population Projects 3) Jobs/Employment Updated DWS employment estimates New estimates translated into updated employment projections Revenue Assumptions Working Group input What were the major changing counties?
New UDEM Model Documentation What were the major changing counties? http://gardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/udem_2017_final.pdf
How do the new updates impact the School Age Population projections? Year 2017 UDEM 2018 UDEM Abs Diff % Diff 2017 684,631 683,076 -1,555 -0.23% 2018 693,269 690,561 -2,708 -0.39% 2019 699,962 696,263 -3,699 -0.53% 2020 705,631 701,398 -4,232 -0.60%
How do the new updates impact the Total Population and Net Migration projections?
How does Public School Enrollment compare to School Age Population Estimates?
How does Public School Enrollment compare to School Age Population Estimates?