The world of work in Free State Joyce Jefferis STATS SA The world of work in Free State Joyce Jefferis Free State Isibalo Symposium Bloemfontein 10-11 October 2013

Presentation outline Part 1: Based on the QLFS STATS SA Presentation outline Part 1: Based on the QLFS Labour market indicators Free State compared with the national average Provincial comparisons Part 2: Based on the population Censuses (1996 & 2011) Labour market results at DC level across the country (top/bottom) DCs Labour market results at DC level for Free State Labour market results at Municipality level for Free State

What is the labour market? STATS SA What is the labour market? Firms demand labour Individuals supply labour Important vehicle for distributing the benefits of economic development

Production: Real GDP (2005 prices y-o-y) STATS SA

The population in South Africa, 2011 STATS SA 51,8 million people and 5% of these (2,7 million) lived in Free State

Distribution of the population in Free State STATS SA Mangaung had the largest population (27,2%) and Xhariep had the smallest (5,3%) Free State Population % Xhariep 142 394 5,3 Lejweleputswa 609 859 22,8 Thabo Mofutsanyane 725 780 27,1 Fezile Dabi 470 014 17,6 Mangaung 727 730 27,2 Total 2 675 777 100,0

Employment: Year on year changes STATS SA 1 million jobs lost in RSA 55 thousand in Free State Peak in Q4: 2008 Latest RSA : 14,0 m 13,7 m Free State: 823 th 761 th 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Industries: Annual job losses 2008 to 2012 STATS SA Nationally Manufacturing, Trade & construction lost the most jobs

Unemployment rate: Official definition STATS SA Free State above the national average by a larger margin since Q3: 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Labour absorption rate: South Africa & Free State STATS SA The percentage of the working age population in Free State with jobs has fallen from almost 46% in Q1:2008 to 40% in Q2:2013 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Census: Unemployment rate by province STATS SA Highest in FS Largest increase in FS & EC

Third highest in Free State Census: Incidence of long term unemployment STATS SA Third highest in Free State

Census: Discouraged work-seekers % of NEA STATS SA

Census: Occupations, 2012 STATS SA

Census: Median monthly earnings STATS SA Third lowest

Hard facts: The job losses in Free State unpacked STATS SA Education 2008 – 2012 Free State lost 93 000 jobs Age Occupation

Understandingthe labour market from a Census perspective STATS SA Understandingthe labour market from a Census perspective

Based on the expanded definition of unemployment. Census STATS SA Note Based on the expanded definition of unemployment. Industry shares refer to the 1996 Census results because the industry coding for 2011 Census results is still underway

Urban and Non-urban unemployment rates 1996 - 2011 Census STATS SA Urban and Non-urban unemployment rates 1996 - 2011

Census: Unemployment rate: Largest increase STATS SA Mining : 46% of Employment

Census: Unemployment rate: Largest decrease STATS SA ISRDP intervention ISRDP: Integrated Sustainable Rural Development Programme of 2001

Metro areas feature prominently Census: Unemployment rate, most urban DCs STATS SA Metro areas feature prominently Slight increase Largest increase Slight decline

Largest decline in rates in 2 DCs (ISRDP) Census: Unemployment rate in Non-Urban areas STATS SA Largest decline in rates in 2 DCs (ISRDP) ISRDP: Integrated Sustainable Rural Development Programme of 2001

Census: NEET rate among youth (15-24 yrs) STATS SA Highest

Unemployment rate and level of education by sex and area type in 2011 Census STATS SA Unemployment rate and level of education by sex and area type in 2011

Lowest unemployment rate but sometimes poor employment conditions Census: Unemployment rate by Area type and sex, 2011 STATS SA South Africa, 2011 Lowest unemployment rate but sometimes poor employment conditions Urban Traditional Farm

Census: Education levels of the labour force, 2011 STATS SA Worst education profile in farm areas. But lowest unemployment rate South Africa 2011 Below matric :54,1 Matric and higher :45,6 Urban Traditional Farm

Largest gender gap where mining is dominant Census: Unemployment rate by sex in the most urbanised DCs, 2011 STATS SA Largest gender gap where mining is dominant Difference

Census: Unemployment rate by sex, most traditional areas, 2011 STATS SA Generally the highest rates in the country for Men & Women Difference

Census: Unemployment rate by sex in farm areas, 2011 STATS SA Difference Relatively large gender imbalances but lowest rates in the country for Men & Women Agriculture accounts for 25-40% of total employment in all DCs

Employment in the formal and informal sector 2011 Census STATS SA Employment in the formal and informal sector 2011

Census: DCs with highest % of formal sector jobs, 2011 STATS SA

Census: DCs with highest % of informal sector jobs, 2011 STATS SA Highest in the country

Census STATS SA Free State Labour market outcomes at DC level

Census: The working age population in Free State, 2011 STATS SA D. 306 000 B. 453 000 C. 399 000 A. 490 000 E. 89 000

Census: Labour force by area type STATS SA Education matters

Mangaung has the best education profile Census: Education profile of the labour force STATS SA Below matric Matric only Tertiary Mangaung has the best education profile 1996 2011

Census: 2011 1996 33,0% Unemployment rate in Free state Mangaung 42,1% STATS SA 1996 33,0% Mangaung 2011 42,1% 33,8 35,5 Largest increase in Lejweleputswa Highest rate in Thabo Mofutsanyane Thabo Mofutsanyane 39,2 47,7 Lejweleputswa 29,1 45,6 Increase (ppoints) Fezile Dabi 30,4 41,4 Lejweleputswa 16,6 (46%) Fezile Dabi 11,0 (29%) Thabo Mofutsanyane 8,5 (25%) Xhariep 6,2 (34%) Mangaung 1,8 Free State 9,1 Xhariep 33,8 40,0

Census: Labour absorption rate STATS SA Best opportunities for employment in Mangaung

Census: Formal and informal sector in 2011 STATS SA Informal sector employment is highest in Xhariep

Census: Unemployment rate by age and sex, 2011 STATS SA

Highest rate but smallest increase Census: Unemployment rate, Municipalities STATS SA Fezile Dabi Highest rate but smallest increase Largest increase Thabo Mofutsanyane 2nd Largest increase 4th Largest increase Lejweleputswa 3rd Largest increase Xhariep Lowest rate 20% 40% 60%

Census: Education profile of the labour force municipalities STATS SA Below matric Matric plus

Census STATS SA Education level of the labour force, 2011 Thank you

Census 1 Agriculture 12,6 7,8 24,6 15,0 6,6 13,7 1,1 10,7 8,5 2 Mining 1996 1 WC 2 EC 3 NC 4 FS 5 KZN 6 NW 7 GP 8 MP 9 LP Grand Total 1 Agriculture 12,6 7,8 24,6 15,0 6,6 13,7 1,1 10,7 8,5 2 Mining 0,1 0,6 4,6 6,1 0,7 2,0 5,6 3,2 2,8 3 Manufacturing 18,0 18,4 7,4 7,6 18,2 9,7 17,6 11,6 9,3 15,4 4 Utilities 1,4 0,8 0,9 1,7 0,5 1,0 2,9 2,3 5 Construction 5,8 4,9 3,9 5,1 4,7 3,0 6,0 6 Trade 17,5 12,9 13,8 11,7 16,0 14,6 16,7 14,5 11,2 15,3 7 Transport 4,5 6,7 6,3 5,0 2,6 5,4 8 Finance 8,7 3,7 6,4 3,6 13,2 6,2 8,3 9 Services 21,1 31,3 20,7 24,0 23,6 21,9 18,8 20,4 30,4 22,5 92 Phholds 6,8 10,4 13,6 14,3 7,5 11,3 8,1 10,1 7,1 9,0 94 Nes 2,7 3,8 3,4 6,9 4,1 9,9 100,0 2013 4,3 10,3 5,2 18,3 14,2 13,1 8,4 15,2 0,4 2,4 7,9 10,2 7,2 9,4 9,8 22,0 21,5 17,3 19,1 20,2 18,7 22,7 21,2 6,5 5,3 3,1 16,2 8,2 7,7 11,8 19,6 9,2 5,7 13,3 25,9 28,0 29,2 22,8 24,1 19,8 23,7 22,2 8,6 12,3 8,0 0,0 0,3 Census STATS SA

Census Industry WC EC NC FS KZN NW GP MP LP RSA Per cent Agriculture Table 5.4: Share of employment by industry and province, 2012 Census STATS SA Industry WC EC NC FS KZN NW GP MP LP RSA Per cent Agriculture 6,6 4,4 16,0 8,8 3,7 4,5 1,4 9,3 9,9 4,9 Mining 0,2 0,1 6,0 0,8 16,1 0,7 6,7 6,9 2,6 Manufacturing 15,6 12,6 4,2 8,3 15,2 7,8 14,5 12,7 Utilities 0,5 1,1 0,6 2,4 0,9 Construction 7,6 9,4 6,2 8,5 6,1 7,4 9,2 Trade 21,2 24,1 15,7 20,9 20,3 21,9 24,7 24,5 22,0 Transport 5,3 5,4 3,3 4,0 4,1 5,0 Finance 15,8 9,5 11,5 8,2 18,8 5,8 13,1 Services 21,1 26,4 29,7 24,6 23,6 16,6 22,9 22,1 Private households 9,1 12,8 9,0 8,6 Total 100,0

STATS SA

Free State at a glance Unemployment rate is the highest in the country STATS SA Unemployment rate is the highest in the country Agriculture, trade and manufacturing lost the most jobs in the past 5 years Informal sector share in total employment is the highest in the ountry Young people Have the highest unemployment rate Data: Q3_Q4: 2012