CRESCO SPIII Review Meeting Analisi e Simulazione di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse e delle loro Interdipendenze SANDRO BOLOGNA bologna@casaccia.enea.it CRESCO SPIII Review Meeting Portici, 23 Ottobre, 2006

Esempi di Reti Tecnologiche Complesse Energia (rete di olio e gas, rete elettrica, …) Informazione & Comunicazione (reti informatiche e di telecomunicazione Trasporto (reti stradale, aeree, navali, ferroviarie,….) Servizi (reti idriche, sanitarie,..)

Mutato contesto socio-economico Financial Services Infrastrutture verticalmente integrate. Sistemi praticamente autonomi con limitati punti di contatto con le altre infrastrutture Health Care Public Utilities Telecommunication Infrastrutture fortemente integrate ed interdipendenti e che si basano su un ambiente condiviso

2100 Twh delivered to 400 ML people UNION FOR THE CO-ORDINATION OF TRANSMISSION OF ELECTRICITY The UCTE System: 2100 Twh delivered to 400 ML people

EUROPE GAS CRISIS WINTER 2006 NETWORK STATE OVERVIEW & ROOT CAUSES

Three Layers Model for the Critical Infrastructure Organisational Layer Intra-dependency Cyber Layer Inter-dependency Physical Layer

Three Layers Model for the Electrical Infrastructure Electrical Components generators, transformers, breakers, connecting cables etc Control and supervisory hardware/software components (Scada/EMS systems) Electrical Power Operators Independent System Operator for electricity planning and transmission Intra-dependency National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Telecomunication Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Inter-dependency

US CANADA BLACK-OUT Power System Outage Task Force Interim Report

CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure will make use of the latest results on complex systems theory to analyse the network’s property and to understand the emergent behaviors that can take place in the network Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

COMPLEX SYSTEMS APPROACH (Barabasi, Strogatz, Watts,…) Recent researches on large-scale networks make evident of some global properties which are not pre-specified by network design and are difficult or impossible to predict from knowledge of its constituent parts. (Barabasi, Strogatz, Watts,…) Poisson distribution Random Network Power-law distribution Scale-free Network

Present limitations of Complex Systems approach Network as a static graph Given a network with N nodes and L links  Create a graph with statistically identical topology RESULT: model the static network topology PROBLEM: Real networks are dynamical systems! Evolving networks OBJECTIVE: capture the network dynamics identify the processes that contribute to the network topology develop dynamical models that capture these processes METHOD :

PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-1 Università degli Studi di Catania, Facoltà di Scienze Matematiche, Fisiche e Naturali, Dipartimento di Fisica ed Astronomia, Prof. Vito Latora

CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure will make use of complementary risk assessment methods to estimate the probability of unwanted incident that may lead to undesired states Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

Modelling tools for dependability analysis Model checking Extended Petri Nets Fault Tree Bayesian networks

PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-2 Università degli Studi di Lecce, Dipartimento di Matematica, Prof.ssa Paola Vocca Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale, Dipartimento di Informatica, Prof. Andrea Bobbio

CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets will make use of analytical approaches to optimize the network in the presence of different type of constraints Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

X X RO MI Distribution Network

TRANSPORTATION NETWORK X X TRANSPORTATION NETWORK

PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-3 Università degli Studi di Salerno, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Informazione e Matematica Applicata: Prof. Ciro D’Apice Università degli Studi di Palermo, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Informatica, Prof. Antonio Chella

CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities will model the organization and the operator behaviour to study organizational vulnerability Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

SOCIO-COGNITIVE ENGINEERING APPROACH: Human Errors Copy rights: High-Intelligence & Decision Research Group, CAMO, ENEA, http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it Author: Adam Maria Gadomski, 8/10/2003 Large Complex Critical Infrastructure (LCCI) Technological Grid Human Errors Organisation Human component Physical component Cyber component

PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-4 Università degli Studi di Roma “Tor Vergata”, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell’Impresa, Prof. Lucio Bianco ECONA - Centro Interuniversitario di Ricerca sull’Elaborazione Cognitiva nei Sistemi Naturali e Artificiali, Prof.ssa Marta Olivetti Belardinelli

CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities will establish probable correlation among different networks to understand cascading failures or unknown and emergent behaviours CRESCO SPIII – Multilayer Modelling Activities Interdependency Model and Simulation all the links with the other nets Organizational Model Organization, operators behaviour Foreign Electrical Transmission Infrastructure Riconfig and Optimiz Model processes and links in the net State Machine Model and Analysis processes and links in the net Telecomunication Infrastructure Topology Model and Analysis nodes and arcs in the net National Electrical Power Transmission Infrastructure Oil/Gas Transport System Infrastructure

Storage, Control Systems Modelling Networked Infrastructures Interdependencies Fuel for Generators, ,Lubricants Fuels, Lubricants Fuel Transport Shipping Transportation Transpor- tation Power for pumping Stations, Storage Control Systems Power for Pump & Lift Stations Power for Switchers Power for compressors Storage, Control Systems Signalling, Transpor- tation Oil SCADA Communications Water for Production Cooling Emission reduction Water for Cooling, Electric Power Fuel for Generators, Heat Natural Gas Water Source: “Critic. Infrastruct Dependencies” Rinaldi, Peerenboom,Kelly 2002 Telecom

PARTNERS CRESCO SPIII-5 Università degli Studi di Roma "Tor Vergata", Dipartimento di Informatica, Sistemi e Produzione, Prof. Salvatore Tucci C.R.I.A.I. Consorzio Campano di Ricerca per l’Informatica e l’Automazione Industriale, Prof. Giorgio Ventre Università Campus Bio-medico di Roma, Facoltà di Ingegneria, Prof. Roberto Setola (Università degli Studi del Sannio, Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Prof. Luigi Glielmo)

National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center