Progress with the EUPORIAS project Carlo Buontempo, +..... WGSIP Euporias Science coordinator Exeter Met Office 11/03/2014 mm carlo.buontempo@metoffice.gov.uk

Partners and stakeholders

EUPORIAS’ structure Three main blocks: RT1: understand RT2: improve Users needs and current use of S2D Sector specific vulnerability RT2: improve Decision-relevant scales: downscale Decision-relevant parameters: impact models and post-processing CCT3: Uncertainty Impact models’ uncertainties Combining uncertainties Communicating level of confidence RT4: engage and demonstrate Decision making process Climate service prototypes Delivery and engagement Business opportunity Stakeholder centrality Promote use through demonstration Final outcome is a small set of fully operational end-to-end climate services and their documentation The prototypes will be identified based on: Demonstrated skill in impact predictions A well identified stakeholder A portfolio of relevant decisions

Stakeholders User relevant parameter differ from sector to sector but temperature and precipitation are among the parameters most required Seasonality of the requirements Appetite to improve large scale predictability rather than granularity. There is still a huge need for education and training.  A stakeholder meeting took place in Rome in Jan 2013. This was the first occasion for all project stakeholders to get together and discuss their needs. On top of the direct conclusion from the workshop the meeting was also an opportunity to open a conversation with the users. The key point to emphasis here are: Language barrier when talking about minimum level of certainty and decisions. Lack of information on what is already available Need for sector specific workshops on S2D and their use. (e.g. water, energy, wine production, tourism and health). Areas of possible development: users-defined indices, integration with other sources of information, statistical-dynamical downscaling, integration with existing early warning systems.

WP12 workshop on ‘Climate services providers & users’ needs’ Current users of seasonal information (operational/ strategic level) mainly related to the energy, insurance, or transport sectors Majority use lead time predictions of a month up to a season; seasonal forecasts users mainly linked to the energy sector; Almost no use of decadal forecasts. Barriers to the use of S2D: Low skill & predictability; limited capacity and relevance/usability of data available; accessibility/communication of information; Solutions to overcome barriers: training and communication; improve skill and predictability; public financing; Workshop report available at www.euporias.eu In Feb we had another workshop, this time hosted at KNMI HQ in De Bilt. This workshop was approaching the relation between users and producers of climate information from the opposite side. This time we asked the producers of climate information about their relationship with the users. The following step was a series of on-depth interviews with the stakeholders these lasted typically between 1 and 2 hours and represented one of the most important legacy of the project at this stage in time. Covering a range of sectors: energy, water, health, agriculture, tourism, insurance, forestry, & emergency response/roads; Better understanding of organisations/sectors needs with regard to their decision-making processes and use of weather/climate information in the organisations; Data from interviews will help inform other EUPORIAS WPs and produce scientific/academic outputs.

Prototypes 6 proposals were selected by an external panel from a set of 11 partners’ proposals on the basis of agreed criteria which included: Value to the users Skill in the predictions Stakeholder engagement Robustness of the impact model Over the next 18 months these prototypes will be developed and delivered by the project. Outlook for UK winter conditions to inform transport industry Food security in East Africa for WFP Winter land management for Clinton Devon Estate Renewable energy management River management in two French catchment areas Hydroelectric production in Sweden These prototypes will represent the main outcome of the project and will provide real example of what climate service may look like on seasonal and decadal time-scales in Europe. They will be developed in close interaction with the users through an Agile methodology. The kick-off of this exiting phase is set for March 26-27. From then on we do expect to be able to provide rapid update on the development of each prototype every month or so. Stay tuned, more info here: www.euporias.eu