Using Deyr ‘15 and Gu '16 as a high-level resilience forecast RESILIENCE WORKING GROUP September, 2016

Methodology Source: Africa Flood and Drought Monitor http://stream.princeton.edu/ Product: 6 month SPIs Why no NDVI?: It has not been updated on AFDM since July 17th Weaknesses: Should be triangulated with other tools SPI does not account for frequency The Resilience Working Group is hosted by the Somalia NGO Consortium and comprises a range of local NGOs, international NGOs, UN and donor members. Open to all Resilience Actors in Somalia. Resilience Working Groups active in Nairobi, Hargeisa and Mogadishu Culmination of 6 month engagement

Deyr 2015 + Gu 2016 12 month SPI September 1st 2016 (Rain in Sep 15-Aug 16 compared to average)

Deyr 2015 6 month SPI March 1st 2016 (Rain in Sept 15 – Feb 16 compared to average)

Gu 2016 6 month SPI September 1st 2016 (Rain in Mar-Aug compared to average)

Conclusion Resilience built through strong Deyr 15 rains is currently weakened by to coping with poor Gu 16 rains. Late or poor Deyr 16 rains will likely be breaking point for many communities Mitigation needed now where possible Emergency programming should be triggered earlier than normal if upcoming Deyr’ rains are late or weak The Resilience Working Group is hosted by the Somalia NGO Consortium and comprises a range of local NGOs, international NGOs, UN and donor members. Open to all Resilience Actors in Somalia. Resilience Working Groups active in Nairobi, Hargeisa and Mogadishu Culmination of 6 month engagement