U.S Presidential Elections

1. Getting Organized #1 Raising Money – may be the most crucial function for a presidential candidate Minimum $30-50 million is required for a presidential election Fundraisers

1. Getting Organized #2 Lining up campaign consultants Campaign strategy, Organize nationwide campaigns, produce commercials (print, TV, internet, SNS), conduct polling, provide issues and opposition research

1. Getting Organized #3 Creating State Campaigns – nominating process is determined by state elections Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Arizona primaries Intense competition to win support and backing of governor, state legislature, members of Congress

1. Getting Organized Example 2000 Republican Senator John McCain upset George W. Bush in New Hampshire, on the strength of his well-run state campaign. One week later, Bush won in South Carolina.

2. Debates & Straw Polls Presidential Debates Televised live 1st televised presidential debate Straw poll conventions Can create momentum in the campaign by winning debates and straw polls

3. Winning the Party Nomination States choose their political candidates Most states use primaries to elect their candidates; few use caucuses. Caucuses – similar to primaries, but voters do not select a candidate directly (ex) Iowa Caucus – 1st week of February

3. Winning the Party Nomination 1976 Jimmy Carter won Iowa Caucus to be the frontrunner candidate 1996 Texas senator Phil Gramm dropped out of the race because of finishing 5th in Iowa Caucus behind Dole, Buchanan, Lamar Alexander, Steve Forbes

3. Winning the Party Nomination New Hampshire Primary: 1st primary in the nation; one week after Iowa Caucus N.H voters are well informed and known for being astute Regional Primaries “Super Tuesday”: a day when multiple primaries take place (South, West)

3. Winning the Party Nomination New Hampshire Primary The winner of the N.H. primary usually becomes the party candidate. Notable Exception: 2000 McCain won N.H. primary, but lost nomination to Bush

3. Winning the Party Nomination 3 Types of Presidential Primaries Open: only registered party members can vote for their nominee (most states) Closed: voters can choose which primary to vote regardless of party affiliation (Michigan, Arizona) Blanket: voters can vote in all the parties’ primaries (Alaska, Washington, Louisiana)

4. Nominating Conventions Television commercials Incumbent president enjoys a big advantage – can flood airwaves with television commercials and attack his opponent Can also receive media coverage for bill-signing ceremonies, ability to set agenda (ex) 1996 Bill Clinton vs. Bob Dole

4. Nominating Conventions Convention takes place in August and represent the formal nominating process Media coverage CNN, MSNBC – liberal (democrat) Anderson Cooper, Rachel Madow Fox – conservative (republican) Bill O’Reilly, Sean Hannity Comedy Shows Daily Show, Saturday Night Live

5. General Election Voters tune in after Labor Day weekend (end of summer) 270 Electoral College votes required for victory Which issues to be emphasized (or de-emphasized) and which issues to be framed Polls conducted to discern voters opinion

5. General Election Polling, Focus Group Interview to determine the issues and language used to discuss them Candidates attend rallies, meet voters, talk to local press (1) Media Coverage (2) “Stay on message”

5. General Election Presidential Debate: good opportunity for underdog to turn things around Election Day: Tuesday after 1st Monday in November “Tracking Polls” – try to predict result (ex) 2000 Florida race

5. General Election Reasons for Electoral College: Framers of Constitution feared direct democracy (believed that a group of citizens were better suited than the masses to select a president) Wanted to protect the interests of smaller states & rural areas

5. General Election Electoral College: 538 members 100 Senators 435 House members Representatives from District of Columbia California 54 Florida 25 “Winner takes all” New York 33 Pennsylvania 23 (-Maine, NB) Texas 32

5. General Election Problem with Electoral College 2000 Bush vs. Gore Gore won popular vote by 500,000 votes But Bush won electoral vote 271:261 (by winning Florida)